By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:19 PM GMT on August 23, 2015
Warnings are flying for the northern Lesser Antilles islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla, as a weakening Tropical Storm Danny heads west at 15 mph. Danny passed very close to Buoy 41300 on Sunday afternoon, which measured top winds of 42 mph at 11 am EDT. High wind shear and dry air continue to take their toll on Danny, which had weakened to top winds of 50 mph as of 2:00 pm EDT Sunday. Danny remains a very small tropical storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out about 60 miles to the northeast of the center and 20 miles to the southwest. Satellite loops on Sunday afternoon showed that Danny’s low-level circulation had become exposed to view, with only a small clump of heavy thunderstorms clustered on the storm’s north and east sides.
Given Danny’s small size and the continued hostile wind shear and dry air affecting the storm, further weakening is likely.
Rainfall from Danny could end up being more boon than bane for the islands, which are suffering one of their worst droughts in decades.
A visible image of Hurricane Danny at 2 pm EDT on Sunday, August 23, showed that the low-level center had become exposed to view, with all of Danny’s heavy thunderstorms clustered on the north and east sides of the center.
Discussion:
Danny appears to be maintaining its intensity for now. The low-level center is estimated to be near the southwestern edge of the main mass of deep convection, and considerable lightning activity has recently been occurring near the center. The current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates and earlier hurricane hunter aircraft data. The center of the storm should pass very near, or over, the French data buoy 41300 shortly, and this should provide additional information about the intensity. Southwesterly vertical shear of nearly 20 kt along with dry mid-level air should continue to affect Danny over the next couple of days.
