At the first news, all Montserratians
On August 24, 2019 there came the following forecast that would turn out to be more devastating for many after it became in description the strongest a hurricane could be.
A tropical depression has formed east-southeast of Lesser Antilles.
At 11 00 a.m., the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Five was located 10.4 North, longitude 47.9 West.
A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that motion is expected to continue through Tuesday 27th.
On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles by Tuesday.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Sunday.
After reading that and looking at the graph and other forecast graphs and information we were prompted to publish the information with the following lead, and some mild cautionary words:
“This one can be troublesome – Pay special attention, Montserrat! If predicted Storm Tracker path holds will be passing at hurricane speed by Wednesday, 28th.”
So, by Wednesday the storm did pass by but had dipped southward on the chart to spare Montserrat who was reportedly from the DMCA prepared as best we could for any expected eventualities, as it continued westwards touching the USVI and shifting northwards grazing Puerto Rico and on to become a destroyer and a killer.
See graph early tracking towards the Bahamas
Fast forward as the storm after passing Puerto Rico went out to sea again and prepared for a September 1 Sunday morning Hurricane Warning issued for the northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. On its current track, forecasters said, the core of the storm should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, approaching as a category 4 and reaching as a category 5.
It is here we can remember Hugo that did just that, lingering after it hit category 5, measurements or descriptions not familiar to us back on September 17,
By this time the weather forecast reports were concentrating on the US mainland Florida etc. But, by mid day the graph accompanied this report. “Hurricane Dorian is now a massive Category 5 hurricane this morning with sustained winds of 185 mph as it makes landfall on Elbow Cay of the Abaco Islands in the Atlantic Ocean.
The National Hurricane Center is calling the storm a life-threatening situation with extreme destruction and the potential for wind gusts over 200 mph.
It is the strongest hurricane in modern record for the northwestern Bahamas. As it continues to slowly move west towards the northwestern Bahamas the outer rain bands of Dorian are expected to reach Freeport and Nassau, with more intense rain falling on Great Abaco Island. Winds are starting pick up and will continue to increase through the morning.
This tweet of many began the story – “I just heard all of the homes in “The Mud” have been destroyed #Dorian2019 #marshharbour”
The forecast then continued: “What is certain from Hurricane Dorian is is that there will be a prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of producing life-threatening flash floods on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama through Monday while the hurricane warning remains in effect for these areas.”
That it was and it only got worst with the warning for the US northeast states, “Even without a landfall, storm surge, heavy rain, and tropical storm force winds will be felt. There is still high uncertainty in the track 3-5 days out and Dorian still has the potential to make landfall in the southeast states.”
Hurricane Dorian spent the best part of three days devastating the Bahamas since it made landfall on Sunday.
Days later and the wind may have traveled on but the water is still there covering, as in one story says, on September 4, 50,000 people call Grand Bahama island home. As you’re reading this, Grand Bahama is seventy percent underwater.
The devastating force of Hurricane Dorian, which made landfall over the Bahamas as a historic Category 5 hurricane. Intense wind, rain and storm surge is to blame for the flooding in Grand Bahama.
And very early, Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Kevin Peter Turnquest stated that “There are still many outstanding rescue missions. It’s not looking good as we expect catastrophic damage.”
Several days later, Cayman’s RCIPS air crew returned from their week-long humanitarian mission to the hurricane-hit Bahamas with harrowing first-hand accounts of the devastation in Abaco and Grand Bahama.
Captain Nigel Pitt, a former military pilot, said the destruction wrought by Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas was the worst he had ever seen.
“We took the old helicopter across to Turks and Caicos after Irma. That was bad. This was 50 times worse,” he said.
The Royal Cayman Islands Police Helicopter, X-ray One, flew 42 missions from Nassau to the affected islands, carrying 125 passengers, including eight young children and 20 adult evacuees. They shipped personnel and desperately needed supplies including tarpaulins and communications equipment to many inaccessible locations.
Pitt said the crew had been proud to be able to assist, though some of the scenes were hard to witness.
“Some of it was very emotional,” he said. “When we first went to the point of the disaster at Marsh Harbour and you see the devastation, you have a lump in your throat, tear in your eye, you can’t even talk about it among yourselves because you knew or could imagine what the people had been through.”
The reports were all the same as aid and assistance poured in while evacuations from the Bahamas was also necessary for many.
See: related stories of Aid
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Hurricane Dorian hit the Bahamas Sunday as a Category 5 storm. It tied the record for the strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall ever, with sustained wind speeds of 185 mph.
Hurricane Dorian’s path continues with the trend that we’ve been seeing over the last day, keeping landfall away from Florida as the steering ridge of high pressure will weaken and allow for Dorian to take that turn to the north. The timing of that turn will be what determines the severity of impacts on Florida’s east coast.
While there are competing models for where the storm could hit, the east coast of Florida still should brace for potential landfall from Dorian.
PHOTO: The forecast track for Hurricane Dorian, Sept. 1, 2019. (ABC NEWS)
Even without a landfall, storm surge, heavy rain, and tropical storm force winds will be felt.
There is still high uncertainty in the track 3-5 days out and Dorian still has the potential to make landfall in the southeast states.
The Bahamas should expect storm surges of up to 15-20 feet, rainfall of up to 30 inches, and prolonged hurricane-force winds, large and destructive waves, and wind gusts of over 100 mph.
