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De Ole Dawg – Special: BREXIT! . . . what comes next?

BREXIT! . . . what comes next?

Olde DawgBRADES, Montserrat, June 26, 2016 – What a difference a week or so can make, especially when it involves an election!

Unaccountable money interests and civil service elites – from the Eton, Oxbridge Toffs of the City of London, to the 40,000 Brussels bureaucrats, to the lords and dames of our own Government Hill in Brades – have been served their biggest helping of humble pie since the American Declaration of July 4th 1776 was made to stick after five years of fighting, at Yorktown, 1781.

The song the British drummers played as they marched out to surrender: the world turned upside down.

Obviously,  those signing a petition for Brexit2 or hoping to undermine the vote through tricks in the House of Commons will fail, the people of Britain will not be thwarted. Britons – regardless of cost – never will be slaves.

Yes, the pound took a pounding; instantly going over an exchange-rate cliff once the Labour stronghold Sunderland “out” vote flashed on our screens like a hammer blow.  In just one night, the pound moved from US$ 1.50, to US$ 1.36.

Yes, financial markets around the world felt the shock waves, rolling off 7 – 8% of their value overnight. Yes, the Scots are re-starting the independence issue. Yes, we in the Caribbean are liable to feel the pinch too (as, recessions and unstable markets are bad for tourism and aid), and the recession we discussed in the pre-brexit special here at TMR[1] is very much on the cards as a possibility as uncertainty drags out through the 2 – 4 year EU exit process and induces depressed expectations for investors around the world.

Yes, Prime Minister David Cameron is gone, only staying on as a 100 day caretaker for the time being. Yes, even Vanity Fair understands something epochal has happened, as do some very worried Germans (who paid a very hard price to understand geostrategic issues deep in their bones):

“In the first hours of the strange new world, Prime Minister David Cameron, a broken man, announced that he would be stepping down . . . Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party, announced that the country, which had voted overwhelmingly to remain, would likely be seeking a new independence referendum in order to join the E.U. as an independent nation . . . . [T]he United Kingdom, once a great power and still the world’s fifth-largest economy, will [likely] be reduced to a rump state of England and Wales. It would have a vastly diminished presence on the international stage—the victim, as Der Spiegel noted, of ‘an act of deliberate self mutilation’ that bears the ‘emblem of a country in retreat.’ ”[2]

Yes, Bible Prophecy buffs are turning to Daniel 2[3] and are talking about how iron and miry clay cannot long cleave together.

Olde Dawg 1(But it is still the case that, for all its divisiveness, the Western Civilisation that comes down to us from Iron Rome still dominates the world stage. And, it is still the case that in the prophesied Messiah, the rock cut out of Mt Zion has struck, with shock waves that will ultimately transform the domineering kingdoms of man into the just peace of God. Where, it is still the case that Christians are not to give in to despairing fatalism that the world must get worse and worse in “these last days,” but are called to bring good news and teach the nations the loving and just ways of the Prince of Peace: “love your neighbour as yourself.” Especially, by our example and by rolling up our sleeves to work hard, doing good until our Lord comes. And, no – self-evidently – shooting up a night club full of “gays” is NOT doing the work of God. The text is plain: “Everyone who hates his brother is a murderer, and you know that no murderer has eternal life abiding in him.” [1 John 3:15.])

Yes, we must accept that we live in spiritually, economically and geostrategically “perilous times”:

Olde Dawg 2Notwithstanding, here in Montserrat, the historic FCO White Paper policy commitment of 2012 still stands:

“The UK Government’s fundamental responsibility and objective is to ensure the security and good governance of the Territories and their peoples. This responsibility flows from international law including the Charter of the United Nations. It also flows from our shared history and political commitment to the wellbeing of all British nationals. This requires us, among other things, to promote the political, economic, social and educational advancement of the people of the Territories, to ensure their just treatment and their protection against abuses, and to develop self-government and free political institutions in the Territories. The reasonable assistance needs of the Territories are a first call on the UK’s international development budget.

Bedrock policy, backed by centuries of history is not likely to just go up in smoke, “poof.” So, as we move forward, let us bear in mind the onward declaration by FCO:

“For those Territories that need support [→ this includes us in Montserrat], DFID will continue to provide assistance with the aim of helping those Territories achieve sustainable, inclusive growth and financial independence from the UK. DFID works in partnership with those Territories that need support to provide assistance with the aim of helping them achieve sustainable, inclusive growth and reducing their financial dependence on the UK wherever this is possible.

Montserrat, clearly can achieve self-sustaining growth and a large measure of financial independence from the UK. This means that the remarks in our pre-brexit special still hold good:

“ . . . regardless of whether “Brexit” occurs, HMG’s core commitment to Montserrat is a matter of international law: the UN Charter, Article 73 commitment that makes the reasonable assistance needs of OTs the first call on the UK development budget. But, to move on to UK investment in major, economy transforming catalytic projects in the face of uncertainty and possible recession, we are going to have to undertake serious reforms, build up our capacity and make a much better case than we have been doing to date.”

Our challenge, then, is to undertake sound governance reforms, build our financial management capacity, develop sound business cases for the cluster of “catalytic” projects that will kick-start solid growth and development, and to see to it that we deliver on those plans.

 END –

[1]           http://www.themontserratreporter.com/de-ole-dawg-special-what-about-the-brexit-possibility/

[2]           http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/06/how-britain-was-broken

[3]           https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Daniel+2&version=ESV

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A Moment with the Registrar of Lands

BREXIT! . . . what comes next?

Olde DawgBRADES, Montserrat, June 26, 2016 – What a difference a week or so can make, especially when it involves an election!

Unaccountable money interests and civil service elites – from the Eton, Oxbridge Toffs of the City of London, to the 40,000 Brussels bureaucrats, to the lords and dames of our own Government Hill in Brades – have been served their biggest helping of humble pie since the American Declaration of July 4th 1776 was made to stick after five years of fighting, at Yorktown, 1781.

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The song the British drummers played as they marched out to surrender: the world turned upside down.

Obviously,  those signing a petition for Brexit2 or hoping to undermine the vote through tricks in the House of Commons will fail, the people of Britain will not be thwarted. Britons – regardless of cost – never will be slaves.

Yes, the pound took a pounding; instantly going over an exchange-rate cliff once the Labour stronghold Sunderland “out” vote flashed on our screens like a hammer blow.  In just one night, the pound moved from US$ 1.50, to US$ 1.36.

Yes, financial markets around the world felt the shock waves, rolling off 7 – 8% of their value overnight. Yes, the Scots are re-starting the independence issue. Yes, we in the Caribbean are liable to feel the pinch too (as, recessions and unstable markets are bad for tourism and aid), and the recession we discussed in the pre-brexit special here at TMR[1] is very much on the cards as a possibility as uncertainty drags out through the 2 – 4 year EU exit process and induces depressed expectations for investors around the world.

Yes, Prime Minister David Cameron is gone, only staying on as a 100 day caretaker for the time being. Yes, even Vanity Fair understands something epochal has happened, as do some very worried Germans (who paid a very hard price to understand geostrategic issues deep in their bones):

“In the first hours of the strange new world, Prime Minister David Cameron, a broken man, announced that he would be stepping down . . . Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party, announced that the country, which had voted overwhelmingly to remain, would likely be seeking a new independence referendum in order to join the E.U. as an independent nation . . . . [T]he United Kingdom, once a great power and still the world’s fifth-largest economy, will [likely] be reduced to a rump state of England and Wales. It would have a vastly diminished presence on the international stage—the victim, as Der Spiegel noted, of ‘an act of deliberate self mutilation’ that bears the ‘emblem of a country in retreat.’ ”[2]

Yes, Bible Prophecy buffs are turning to Daniel 2[3] and are talking about how iron and miry clay cannot long cleave together.

Olde Dawg 1(But it is still the case that, for all its divisiveness, the Western Civilisation that comes down to us from Iron Rome still dominates the world stage. And, it is still the case that in the prophesied Messiah, the rock cut out of Mt Zion has struck, with shock waves that will ultimately transform the domineering kingdoms of man into the just peace of God. Where, it is still the case that Christians are not to give in to despairing fatalism that the world must get worse and worse in “these last days,” but are called to bring good news and teach the nations the loving and just ways of the Prince of Peace: “love your neighbour as yourself.” Especially, by our example and by rolling up our sleeves to work hard, doing good until our Lord comes. And, no – self-evidently – shooting up a night club full of “gays” is NOT doing the work of God. The text is plain: “Everyone who hates his brother is a murderer, and you know that no murderer has eternal life abiding in him.” [1 John 3:15.])

Yes, we must accept that we live in spiritually, economically and geostrategically “perilous times”:

Olde Dawg 2Notwithstanding, here in Montserrat, the historic FCO White Paper policy commitment of 2012 still stands:

“The UK Government’s fundamental responsibility and objective is to ensure the security and good governance of the Territories and their peoples. This responsibility flows from international law including the Charter of the United Nations. It also flows from our shared history and political commitment to the wellbeing of all British nationals. This requires us, among other things, to promote the political, economic, social and educational advancement of the people of the Territories, to ensure their just treatment and their protection against abuses, and to develop self-government and free political institutions in the Territories. The reasonable assistance needs of the Territories are a first call on the UK’s international development budget.

Bedrock policy, backed by centuries of history is not likely to just go up in smoke, “poof.” So, as we move forward, let us bear in mind the onward declaration by FCO:

“For those Territories that need support [→ this includes us in Montserrat], DFID will continue to provide assistance with the aim of helping those Territories achieve sustainable, inclusive growth and financial independence from the UK. DFID works in partnership with those Territories that need support to provide assistance with the aim of helping them achieve sustainable, inclusive growth and reducing their financial dependence on the UK wherever this is possible.

Montserrat, clearly can achieve self-sustaining growth and a large measure of financial independence from the UK. This means that the remarks in our pre-brexit special still hold good:

“ . . . regardless of whether “Brexit” occurs, HMG’s core commitment to Montserrat is a matter of international law: the UN Charter, Article 73 commitment that makes the reasonable assistance needs of OTs the first call on the UK development budget. But, to move on to UK investment in major, economy transforming catalytic projects in the face of uncertainty and possible recession, we are going to have to undertake serious reforms, build up our capacity and make a much better case than we have been doing to date.”

Our challenge, then, is to undertake sound governance reforms, build our financial management capacity, develop sound business cases for the cluster of “catalytic” projects that will kick-start solid growth and development, and to see to it that we deliver on those plans.

 END –

[1]           http://www.themontserratreporter.com/de-ole-dawg-special-what-about-the-brexit-possibility/

[2]           http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/06/how-britain-was-broken

[3]           https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Daniel+2&version=ESV