All over the world, the rates of death and hospitalization from COVID keep dropping. But our successful mitigation of the worst outcomes of the 33-month-old pandemic belie a growing crisis.
More and more people are surviving COVID and staying out of the hospital, but more and more people are also living with long-term symptoms of COVID. Fatigue. Heart problems. Stomach problems. Lung problems. Confusion. Symptoms that can last for months or even a year or more after the infection clears.
As many as 21 percent of Americans who caught the SARS-CoV-2 virus this summer ended up suffering from long COVID starting four weeks after infection, according to a new study from City University of New York.
That’s up from 19 percent in figures the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported in June.
Compare those numbers to the recent rates of death and hospitalization from COVID in the U.S.—three percent and .3 percent, respectively. Long COVID is by far the likeliest serious outcome from any novel-coronavirus infection. And possibly getting likelier.
The CUNY study, which is not yet peer-reviewed, focused on American adults, but the results have implications for the whole world. Globally, long-term symptoms are partially replacing COVID deaths. After all, more COVID survivors means more people at risk of long-term symptoms. And long COVID is cumulative—people get sick and stay sick for a while.
“Despite an increased level of protection against long COVID from vaccination, it may be that the total number of people with long COVID in the U.S. is increasing,” epidemiologist Denis Nash, the CUNY study’s lead author, told The Daily Beast. That is, every day more people catch long COVID than recover from long COVID.
But understanding long COVID, to say nothing of preventing it, isn’t a priority in the global epidemiological establishment. That needs to change, Nash said. “I believe it is long past time to be focusing on long COVID in addition to preventing hospitalizations and deaths.”
In recent weeks, authorities have logged around half a million new COVID cases a day, worldwide. That’s not quite as low as the 400,000 new cases a day health agencies tallied during the biggest dip in case-rates back in February 2021. But it’s close.
What’s really remarkable, however, is how few of those half-a-million-a-day COVID infections are fatal. Lately, just 1,700 people have been dying every day—that’s a fifth as many died daily in February last year when the number of new infections every day was only slightly greater.
Hospitalizations for serious COVID cases are down, too. Global statistics aren’t available, but in the U.S., COVID hospitalizations dropped from 15,000 a day 19 months ago to just 3,700 a day now.
It’s not hard to explain the decrease in the death and hospitalization rates. Worldwide, around two-thirds of adults are at least partially vaccinated. Billions of people also have antibodies from past infections they survived. Every antibody helps to blunt the absolutely worst outcomes.
But the incidence of long COVID appears to be ticking upward. The high reinfection rate could be one reason. Currently, one in six people catches the virus more than once. Repeated infections come with the elevated risk of a whole host of problems that, not coincidentally, match the symptoms of long COVID, a team of scientists at Washington University School of Medicine and the U.S. Veterans Administration’s Saint Louis Health Care System concluded in a study this summer. The more reinfections, the more long COVID.
Crunching the numbers from back in July, Nash’s team concluded that 7 percent of all American adults—that’s more than 18 million people—had long COVID at the time. If the same rate applies to the whole world—and there’s no reason to believe it doesn’t—the global caseload for long COVID could’ve exceeded 560 million this summer.
That number is probably a lot higher now, considering the summer spike in infections resulting from BA.5—a million worldwide new cases a day in July.
One thing that surprised Nash and his teammates is that the risk of long COVID isn’t uniform across the population. Young people and women are more likely to catch long COVID, the CUNY team found. Nash said the higher vaccination rate among older adults and seniors could explain the former. But the latter remains a mystery. “Further study of these groups may provide some clues about risk factors,” he said.
Why there’s a sex gap in long COVID risk is just one unanswered question that scientists and health officials could be trying to answer. They could also be working up new vaccine strategies and public-health messaging specifically for long COVID.
But by and large, they’re not doing much to address the risk of long-term symptoms, Nash said. Nearly three years into the COVID pandemic, authorities are still overwhelmingly focused on preventing hospitalizations and deaths—and only preventing hospitalizations and deaths.
“Exclusively focusing on these outcomes could arguably make the long COVID situation worse,” Nash explained, “since there is a substantial amount of long COVID among people that have only had mild or less severe SARS-CoV-2 infections.”
In that sense, long COVID is a silent crisis. One that affects potentially more than half a billion people, but which isn’t a major focus of research or public health policy. “It’s certainly valuable to save lives, but quality of life is very important, too—and that can be lacking in people who have long COVID,” Cindy Prins, a University of Florida epidemiologist, told The Daily Beast.
We’re not powerless to prevent long COVID, of course. The same tools that can prevent hospitalization and death from COVID can also reduce the likelihood of long-term symptoms—all by lowering the chance of any COVID, short or long. Get vaccinated. Keep current on your boosters. Mask up in crowded indoor spaces.
But given the trend in SARS-CoV-2’s evolution, long COVID could become a bigger and bigger problem even among the most careful people—and a problem begging for specific solutions. The virus is still mutating. And every new variant or subvariant has tended to be more contagious than the last, meaning more and more breakthrough infections in the fully-vaccinated and boosted.
If you’re currently up to date on your jabs, the chances of COVID killing you or putting you in the hospital are low. But the chances of it making you sick, potentially for a very long time, are substantial—and apparently getting higher.
The Alternative
Routes Team (ART) would like to advise that there are still a few seats available
on Saturday 11th and 18th December 2021 with WINAIR, seating
a maximum of 14 passengers. Additional
flights are also being arranged for 8th, 15th and 22nd
January 2022.
Persons wishing to travel to St Maarten for international connections to Europe, Canada, the USA can now book seats on the return flights to St Maarten on 11th and 18th December 2021 and 8th, 15th, and 22nd January, 2022 respectively.
PASSENGER MAXIMUM LUGGAGE
ALLOWANCE IS 35LBS CHECKED AND 10LBS HAND LUGGAGE
Interested persons are advised to contact Mr. Desmond Meade at 1-954-805-5663 (WhatsApp, Telegram) or email: ds3ic34@gmail.com to book flights or for further information.
Disclaimer: Although this route does facilitate the travel
of persons who have not been able to vaccinate for medical or for deeply
religious reasons, this information is certainly not intended to discourage
persons from vaccination. Most health services at this time encourage
vaccination against covid19. Persons are encouraged to discuss vaccination with
their healthcare provider.
Please note that the charter flight on WINAIR arriving in Montserrat from St Maarten on December 4, 2021, is now fully booked. Additional weekly flights are being arranged with WINAIR, scheduled for 11th and 18th December 2021, and 8th, 15th, and 22nd January 2022, maximum seating of 14 passengers.
Persons wishing to travel to St Maarten for international connections to Europe, Canada, the USA, to shop, or simply for a STRESS-BUSTER can now book seats on the return flights to St Maarten on 4th and 11th December 2021 and 8th, 15th, and 22nd January, 2022 respectively.
PASSENGER MAXIMUM LUGGAGE
ALLOWANCE IS 35LBS CHECKED AND 10LBS HAND LUGGAGE
Interested persons are advised to contact Mr. Desmond Meade at 1-954-805-5663 (WhatsApp, Telegram) or email: ds3ic34@gmail.com to book flights or for further information.
Disclaimer: Although this route does facilitate the travel
of persons who have not been able to vaccinate for medical or for deeply
religious reasons, this information is certainly not intended to discourage
persons from vaccination. Most health services at this time encourage
vaccination against covid19. Persons are encouraged to discuss vaccination with
their healthcare provider.
FYI-Update: Travelling from the UK and USA to Montserrat via St. Maarten FOR THE 2021 SEASON. ALTERNATIVE ROUTE
October 25th, 2021, A Private charter is being arranged which can accommodate a maximum of 14 passengers and luggage. WINAIR will be utilizing the Twin Otter aircraft, The first charter is scheduled for December 4th, departing St. Maarten at 7.40 am, arriving John A Osborne Airport at 8.30 am. Weekly, charters are being planned for.
Persons must first get permission to enter Montserrat and St. Maarten. Obtain permission at www.gov.ms/travel website, and, for St. Maarten website http://stmaartenehas.com/travel. Travelers are encouraged to get this permission at the latest November 15th. Contact Mr. Desmond Meade at 1-954-805-5663 (WhatsApp, Telegram) for further information. All passengers MUST arrive at St. Maarten the day before the charter on December 3rd.
Arrangements are being made for the overnight Hotel to accommodate all charter passengers on St. Maarten. Passengers are responsible for charges for taxis, meals, and hotels.
PASSENGERS MAX LUGGAGE ALLOWANCE IS 35lbs CHECKED LUGGAGE, and 10lbs HAND LUGGAGE.
Disclaimer: Although this route does facilitate the travel of persons who have not been able to vaccinate for medical reasons or for deeply religious reasons, this information is certainly not intended to discourage persons from vaccination. Most health services at this time encourage vaccination against covid 19. Persons are encouraged to discuss vaccination with their healthcare provider.
Have we put the cart
before the horse with this pandemic, as leaky vaxxes can trigger the rapid
spread of more dangerous strains? (And so, back to the value of Ivermectin.)
BRADES, Montserrat, September 12, 2021 – It is clear that some health authorities and governments across the Caribbean and wider world are beginning to “lose patience” with the not vaccinated. Such are widely viewed as misinformed, as idiotic,[1] stubborn, led by armchair instigators, as a dangerous source of spreading the pandemic, even as irresponsible and antisocial. Street talk and social media buzz show that some here in Montserrat are catching the impatience fever. We need to cool down the temperature and show why effective treatments such as Ivermectin are a key strategy.
Marek’s Disease in Chickens, a model for immunity escape [Cr Kumawat, Slideshare]
For, there is a Marek’s Disease Virus[2] shaped reason
why Pfizer’s CEO recently touted his bright shiny new pill and finally publicly
admitted that “Success against #COVID19 will likely require both vaccines
& treatments.”[3]For, here in Montserrat, across the region and the world, we are
playing with the fire of “leaky,” “non-sterilising” vaccines.
The case of Marek’s Disease
Virus in chickens – yes, chickens – tells us why.
Andrew F Read et al. let the
cat out of the bag, in PLOS Biology,
back in July 2015[4]:
“Vaccines that keep
hosts alive but still allow transmission could . . . allow very virulent strains to circulate in a
population. Here we show experimentally that immunization of chickens against
Marek’s disease virus enhances the fitness of more virulent strains . . . .
When vaccines prevent transmission, as is the case for nearly all vaccines used
in humans, this type of evolution towards increased virulence is blocked. But
when vaccines leak, allowing at least some pathogen transmission, they could
create the ecological conditions that would allow hot strains to emerge and
persist . . . [W]e report experiments with Marek’s disease virus in
poultry that show that modern commercial leaky vaccines can have precisely this
effect: they allow the onward transmission of strains otherwise too lethal to
persist. Thus, the use of leaky vaccines can facilitate the evolution of
pathogen strains that put unvaccinated hosts at greater risk of severe disease.”
The article also notes that:
“Efficacy and mode of action
are key. If [a] vaccine is sterilizing, so that transmission is
stopped, no evolution can occur. But if it is non-sterilizing, so
that naturally acquired pathogens can transmit from immunized individuals (what
we hereafter call a “leaky” vaccine), virulent strains will be able to
circulate in situations in which natural selection would have once removed them
. . .”
It is of course obvious that local, regional and international officials recognise that the major Covid-19 vaccines (including the AstraZeneca used in Montserrat) are “non-sterilising.” That’s why the vaccinated have continued to be tested and quarantined. That’s why they must still wear face masks and do social distancing etc. That’s why it is admitted they can catch and infect others with the disease, though it is believed that the vaccines reduce the intensity of the disease. And, it is why, with Delta strain on the loose, we see significant numbers of cases where the “fully vaccinated” are becoming seriously ill or worse with Covid-19. So, again, as a recent report on Israel (which is now pushing third jabs) noted[5]:
“As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19 . . . 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,” says Uri Shalit, a bioinformatician at the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) . . . “One of the big stories from Israel is:
‘Vaccines work, but not well enough.’” [“A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta” Science Mag dot Org, August 16, 2021.]
In short, those who are
“losing patience” with the unvaxxed have put the cart before the horse and are
sliding into blaming the victim.
It was obvious from the beginning that the major anti-Covid-19 vaccines were “leaky” or “non-sterilising.” The researchers, regulators, and officials all knew that. We can take it to the bank that they knew about the Marek Virus evidence, that leaky vaxxes can turn the vaxxed into reservoirs for more dangerous, more infectious, fast-spreading strains than would naturally have come about. So, we know one reason they are desperate to get everyone jabbed, they fear a truly lethal breakout strain, let’s call it Delta-plus. But we are not locked up in such a dilemma. There is the Ivermectin-based treatment option that should have been vigorously pushed as the treatment arm of our pandemic strategy for many months now.
But, someone following the
WHO-FDA talking points,[6] may say, there’s
no scientific evidence of that.
False, irresponsibly,
destructively, inexcusably false, with lives on the line.
For one example, here are Omura
et al from Japan, in a review article published in March this year[7] – yes, six
months ago:
“As of the 30th of January 2021, a total of 91 trials in 27 countries has been recorded at these registration sites. There are 43 trials in phase 3 and 27 trials in phase 2, along with 17 observational studies. This includes 80 trials being conducted for therapeutic purposes and 11 for the purpose of preventing the onset of disease in close contacts and healthcare professionals. Furthermore, by the 27th of February, the results of 42 clinical trials, including approximately 15,000 patients (both registered and unregistered studies) have been subjected to a meta-analysis after exclusion of biasing factors. It was found that 83% showed improvements with early treatment, 51% improved during late-stage treatment, and there was an 89% prevention of onset rate noted. This confirms the usefulness of ivermectin. Since it is a meta-analysis based on 42 test results, it is estimated that the probability of this comprehensive judgment being a mistake is as low as one in four trillion.” [The Japanese Journal of Antibiotics 74-1. Ivermectin emerged from research done in Japan.]
Investors and gamblers would salivate over an opportunity to bet with odds of four million, millions to one in favour of success. That is far more than adequate, robust scientific evidence to allow physicians to prescribe Ivermectin as a preventative, as a treatment to stamp out early-stage Covid-19, and even as part of protocols for seriously ill patients.[8] Those who have pretended otherwise have done the world a grave disservice.
It is time for a fresh conversation and a fresh approach to taming the pandemic before it becomes an even more destructive immune escape monster, say, Delta-plus. That is going to require that we back away from the WHO-FDA talking points and recognise the evidence for and legitimacy of treatments based on repurposed, proved medications such as Ivermectin.
Playing the game! But we can’t say that the BOT Montserrat understands it. That begs the question, “Do the Government continue to ‘mismanage’? The criticism from day one has been how poorly they have managed, criminalising guidelines, and the logistics surrounding them. A most recent press release claiming to have “expanded the categories of persons allowed to enter Montserrat, and have made provisions for the use of electronic monitoring devices under the new public health COVID-19 Suppression Order…, is no more than forcing people to take the vaccine.
The UK Daily Express carried that story today coming after the Government of Montserrat (GOM) announced that it was making laws in a similar fashion that has pressured in more ways than one, the people and visitors to Montserrat. The latest move in a hypocritical way appears to be opening up the island to ‘tourists’ and visitors and even to persons who own homes and others who are normally residents in Montserrat for periods during each year.
What is this thirst, this hang-up on ‘vaccination’ which as seen in the most recent of many stories and official announcements, that the vaccine does not guarantee one who has taken, the ‘jab’ or ‘jabs’ (more than one, three may even be required to improve efficacy, do not prevent the vaccinated from contracting or passing on the infection?
The Order requires that certain categories of persons visiting the island must be fully vaccinated in order to gain admission to the island. The previous rules such as testing when on the island may still be in place.
“The parent or sibling of a Montserratian…”
“The parent, sibling, husband, wife, child or dependant of a person who (i) holds a permit of permanent residence; (ii) ordinarily resides on Montserrat; or, (iii) who owns a habitable house or home in Montserrat.”
“The parent, sibling, husband-wife, child or dependant of a professional person who has been engaged by an entity in the public or private sector.”
In each case these persons: “…must be fully vaccinated and intends to enter Montserrat no earlier than July 19, 2021 and leave Montserrat no later than September 30, 2021;”
They remind that the new Order also makes provisions for the use of an electronic monitoring device to better manage persons in self-quarantine.
On the Daily Express website there is also an article which quotes a professor who is angry at PM Johnson for what is called “Freedom Day” when all COVID-19 restrictions are eased on Monday. “Professor Christina Pagel, professor of operational research at University College London (UCL), said: “I feel p****d off, sad and angry.
“We are having the wrong conversation. Opening up on Monday is madness. We should not be doing it.
“We should be talking about how do we get cases down now.”
TMR says they can ease the situation by offering those people who for one reason or another do access the vaccine advice and information on how to protect healthily against the virus and what treatment is available early should they contract or even suspect, infection.
The full referenced GoM press release may be found at: www.gov.ms
Readers who wish to read more on the issues of mandatory vaccination and other reletative matters to how the COVID situation is handled, here and world-wide may find on this TMR site and at: https://www.facebook.com/themontserratreporter
TMR: As we here agree but for different reasons; knowing our GoM somehow do not reference much CARPHA/PAHO/WHO but follow UK directives, mostly though seemingly without question or study.
Doctors and NHS trusts are demanding a plan for Britain’s Autumn booster jab rollout within weeks to ensure the UK can end its ’emergency response’ to Covid-19 and edge further towards normality.
Medics also want clarity from ministers on how long they believe that immunity from the first two jabs will last and whether children are to be vaccinated as England’s proposed ‘Freedom Day’ arrived with little relaxation of rules because of the Indian ‘Delta’ variant.
The challenge of also doing the winter flu jab campaign as usual – and the potential of a combined shot to fight both the flu and coronavirus – must also be overcome as well as keeping an army of volunteers on standby to administer the injections, experts warned today.
Chris Hopson, the head of NHS Providers and Royal College of GPs chairman Martin Marshall said the plan to ensure every British adult is offered a jab by July 19 is ‘not so much a finishing line as a staging post’.Adwith Telegraph Media GroupHomeowner over 60? Don’t fall for the equity release myths
One insider told the BBC: ‘We cannot just carry on as we are, with an emergency response’.
Almost a third of all adults in the UK have now had two jabs, while 80 per cent of the population has had a first jab. But the elderly and vulnerable are expected to need a third jab to protect them this winter.
Covid booster vaccines are currently being trialled in the UK as health chiefs gear up to offer all over-50s a third dose this autumn.
Southampton University scientists are recruiting thousands of fully-vaccinated Britons to the study, which will test seven Covid jabs as top-ups.
They will record any side-effects analyse the antibody levels of volunteers to check whether the extra dose offered any extra protection. No10’s top scientists are set to be fed the results of the world-first trial to determine how booster shots should be dished out later in the year.
The acceleration of planning for the Autumn came as:
Covid jabs ‘will be offered to 16 and 17-year-olds before schools return in September’
Young people aged 16 and 17 are to be offered a coronavirus vaccine before they return to school after the summer holidays, it has been reported.
According to The Sun, ministers want to give jabs to children for the first time if medical experts say it is safe to do so.
The new plans emerged on the day that Britons would have been celebrating the final lifting of coronavirus restrictions, before the measure was delayed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
With a new Freedom Day target of July 17, Downing Street reportedly wants to offer all A-level and college students aged 16 and 17 a vaccine in August before they go back to school in September.
However, it comes after experts on the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation are understood to have raised ‘serious ethical concerns’ about inoculating children because of the tiny risk they face of becoming seriously ill.
The JCVI was reportedly set to urge No10 to hold off jabbing under-18s in the immediate future and wait for more safety data to come out of the US and Israel, where the plans are already in motion.
But a Whitehall source told The Sun that if the JCVI does approve vaccinations for younger age groups, the Government has the ‘capacity and willingness’ to offer them vaccines.
‘Late teens are some of the most socially active members of society so if we can cut that transmission, it can only be a good thing,’ they added.
Yesterday, hundreds of people queued to get a jab at Tottenham Hotspur’s stadium in north London as the vaccine programme was opened up to people aged 18 to 20.
More than 700,000 Covid-19 jabs were booked in one day through the national booking service on Friday which equated to 30,000 an hour or more than eight every second.
Experts running the clinical trials said every jab should spark added immunity — but that some may lead to more side-effects than others.
It came as one million jabs were booked over the weekend as officials launched a ‘summer sprint’ to vaccinate all over-18s by July 19.
Thousands queued in the rain for jabs at Tottenham Hotspur’s stadium in north London yesterday after the football club turned into a walk-in vaccine clinic for the day. Most of those getting vaccinated were in their late teens or 20s, and also went to similar events at football stadiums all over London over the weekend.
Patients will be given health MOTs when they go to get their covid boosters or flu jabs, under NHS plans.
Starting this Autumn, they will be offered a range of tests including blood pressure, heart rhythm and cholesterol checks.
NHS officials believe that thousands of lives could be saved by rolling out these routine MOTs to patients at the same time as their jabs.
Scientists are not yet clear as to whether patients will need booster jabs this Autumn and it will depend on how long the protective effects of the first two doses last, based on the evidence from trials.
But NHS officials are planning to offer these check-ups at flu vaccination clinics – even if the boosters aren’t needed – to try and catch conditions that might otherwise remain undiagnosed.
Amanda Pritchard, the NHS’s Chief Operating Officer said: ‘The NHS is not just a sickness service but a health service which is why we want to make every contact count, using every opportunity
Officials are in a race to vaccinate younger adults in a bid to halt the spread of the Indian variant and stop students bringing Covid-19 back home over the summer holidays, potentially infecting older generations.
Cases are currently highest among people in their 20s and infections are five times higher in under-25s than in over-65s, as almost all older adults have received both doses.
Everyone aged 18 and over is being urged to arrange a jab if they have not yet had one, as the health service enters the final push to protect the country against the virus.
Public Health England said there has been a 79 per cent rise in one week in cases of the Delta variant, first identified in India, with the increase being driven by younger age groups.
Similar pop-up centres to the one at Tottenham Hotspur were set up on Saturday at sporting venues in London and giant jab clinics were also opened at the Olympic Stadium, Stamford Bridge, Charlton Athletic FC, Selhurst Park and Crystal Palace Athletics Centre.
There were also pop up clinics at universities, such as in York and Canterbury.
The day before, the vaccine programme was thrown open to all over-18s and the NHS revealed that 1,008,472 jab appointments were booked on Friday and Saturday.
Social media firms have signed up to a government plan to encourage younger people to get the Covid jab. Snapchat, Reddit, TikTok and YouTube joined the scheme.
The success of the vaccination rollout is crucial if ‘Freedom Day’ can finally go ahead on July 19.
Ministers consider letting holidaymakers who have received two doses of Covid vaccine skip quarantine after visiting amber list countries
People who have received two doses of the coronavirus vaccine may not be required to quarantine after going on trips overseas, it emerged today.
Cabinet ministers are considering easing restrictions for double-jabbed UK travellers, while a top Public Health England medic hinted there may be ‘alternatives to isolation’ for fully-vaccinated Britons.
Such a move would help placate the beleaguered travel industry, which has been devastated by restrictions and successive lockdowns more than a year and whose chiefs have warned of a jobs bloodbath.
Under current rules, UK travellers from red list countries must quarantine in a government-approved hotel for 10 days at a cost of £1,750 per person.
Those who leave the quarantine hotel before the end of their 10 days could be handed a £5,000 fine, rising to a maximum of £10,000.
People travelling to the UK from amber list countries have to quarantine for 10 days at home, and will need to present proof of a negative PCR test upon arrival, as well as tests on days two and eight of quarantine.
Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show this morning, Dr Susan Hopkins said: ‘We’ll be looking at the evidence from other countries.
‘We’ve talked a lot to countries like Israel who are ahead of us in the vaccination campaign, and they are now really looking at allowing people to come into their country who’ve had two vaccines and not needing to isolate.
‘And they are allowing their population to travel more.
‘We will need to be alert and will need to consider how we can measure the response of these vaccines to new variants that come along.
‘But we are moving steps forward, and I think that in a time in the future, I’m not sure when, I can imagine a situation where we will have alternatives to isolation for people who have two doses of the vaccine.’
Responding to Dr Hopkins’ remarks, Justice Secretary Robert Buckland said the Government has not ruled out relaxing restrictions, such as on foreign travel and self-isolation, for those who have received both vaccines.
‘I think experts like Susan Hopkins are absolutely right to remind us the evidence is still developing on double vaccinations,’ he told the BBC.
‘It looks great, it looks really encouraging, we’re trying to be as flexible as we can. We will keep on looking at all these proposals and flexes as appropriate.’
About two-thirds of cases are in unvaccinated people, and just one in 13 infections are in those who have received both doses.
So far some 59.5 per cent of British adults have had two doses of a vaccine, while 81.6 per cent have had at least one dose.
Dr Susan Hopkins, from Public Health England, yesterday said she hopes all over-40s – seven in ten of all adults – will be fully vaccinated when restrictions lift.
So far four in five adults have received one dose and three in five have had both vaccines.
Sir Simon Stevens, NHS chief executive, said: ‘It is fantastic to see so many young people coming forward to do their bit in the battle against the virus, protecting themselves, their friends and their family. NHS staff are pulling out all the stops to get jabs in arms.’
Yesterday Professor Kevin Fenton, regional director at London Public Health England, said: ‘We’re just about entering into a final summer sprint, where we’re working with local authorities to get the rates up among everybody over the age of 18, but especially those aged over 40. That’s our number-one focus now.’
Professor Fenton said it was unlikely the capital would have all over-30s double-vaccinated by July 19, but that it was vital they had been given one dose by then.
He said the PHE staff in London were ‘really dealing with hesitancy that people may have about getting vaccinated, it’s safety, or where to get it done’.
The bookings surge came at the end of a week which had already seen almost 1.8 million appointments made in just three days, after the NHS vaccination programme opened up to people in their early twenties.
Some 692,299 appointments were made on Tuesday when 23 and 24-year-olds became eligible for a jab, with another 635,478 booked on Wednesday when the programme was extended to those aged 21 and 22.
There were another 456,366 appointments made on Thursday, meaning more than 2.5 million appointments were booked in just four days since booking opened to under 25s on Tuesday.
NHS chief executive Sir Simon Stevens said: ‘This pandemic has been a challenge for everyone but the various restrictions have hit young people particularly hard.
‘That’s why it’s good news that Covid vaccinations are now open to all adults across the country, and already well over three million people in their twenties have now had their first jab.
‘So if you’re 18 and over and haven’t yet had yours, now’s the time. It’s the single easiest way to protect yourself, keep friends and family safe, and hopefully give us all our summer freedoms back.
‘Please encourage your friends and loved ones to do the same, as we’re now in the race to the finish line.
‘The more of us who are vaccinated, the safer we all are, and the sooner freedom can return.’
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: ‘It’s incredible to see the enthusiasm young people are showing for vaccination across the country, and it is a testament to the fantastic work of the team in keeping as many people safe from Covid-19 as possible.
‘If you’ve yet to book your appointment, I urge you not to hesitate in getting your jab and securing this protection for yourself and your loved ones.’
Government data up to June 18 showed that of the 73,766,593 jabs given in the UK so far, 42,679,268 were first doses – a rise of 218,636 on the previous day. Some 31,087,325 were second doses, an increase of 188,858.
Ministers are today facing calls to relax foreign holiday rules after new data revealed fewer than one in 200 travellers from amber list countries tested positive for Covid.
Just 89 of the 23,465 people who travelled into the UK from amber list countries at the end of last month and the start of this month had a negative Covid test, NHS Test and Trace shows.
The cases all came from just 16 of the 167 countries on the amber list, according to the data.
And there were no cases classed as being ‘variants of concern’ – Alpha, Beta, Delta or Gamma variants – the figures show.
Ministers say the strict foreign travel rules are there to reduce the risk of dangerous variants from reaching the UK.
But the new figures, which cover the period of May 20 to June 9, have led to more calls to relax restrictions – which have caused havoc on the travel industry.
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee of Conservative MPs, told the Times that the Government should start relying on its successful vaccine roll-out.
He told the paper: ‘Vaccination and testing are making international travel safer just as surely as they make things safer within our borders.
‘It’s time British people were able to reap the benefits of the vaccines and for us to get the travel industry moving again.’
Currently there are 167 countries on the UK’s amber travel list, including top holiday hotspots such as Portugal, Spain and Greece.
Travellers from amber list countries are required to self-isolate for 10 days on their arrival in the UK, and take two PCR Covid tests.
These tests are the figures that are provided by NHS Test and Trace.
The figures also show there were no Covid cases recorded from arrivals from green list countries – of which there are currently 11 destinations including Iceland and Gibraltar.
Arrivals from green list countries do not have to quarantine on their arrival in the UK.
From red list countries, which require entrants to the UK to quarantine in specific hotels, 435 of the 24,511 people arriving from red list countries had coronavirus.
Of those cases, 89 variants of concern were detected.
It comes as it is revealed today that people who have received two doses of the coronavirus vaccine may not be required to quarantine after going on trips overseas.
Cabinet ministers are considering easing restrictions for double-jabbed UK travellers, while a top Public Health England medic hinted there may be ‘alternatives to isolation’ for fully-vaccinated Britons.
Such a move would help placate the beleaguered travel industry, which has been devastated by restrictions and successive lockdowns more than a year and whose chiefs have warned of a jobs bloodbath.
Under current rules, UK travellers from red list countries must quarantine in a government-approved hotel for 10 days at a cost of £1,750 per person.
Those who leave the quarantine hotel before the end of their 10 days could be handed a £5,000 fine, rising to a maximum of £10,000.
People travelling to the UK from amber list countries have to quarantine for 10 days at home, and will need to present proof of a negative PCR test upon arrival, as well as tests on days two and eight of quarantine.
Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show this morning, Dr Susan Hopkins said: ‘We’ll be looking at the evidence from other countries.
‘We’ve talked a lot to countries like Israel who are ahead of us in the vaccination campaign, and they are now really looking at allowing people to come into their country who’ve had two vaccines and not needing to isolate.
‘And they are allowing their population to travel more.
‘We will need to be alert and will need to consider how we can measure the response of these vaccines to new variants that come along.
‘But we are moving steps forward, and I think that in a time in the future, I’m not sure when, I can imagine a situation where we will have alternatives to isolation for people who have two doses of the vaccine.’
Meanwhile Covid cases have risen by a quarter in the last week and another six people have died from the virus, as a SAGE expert warned a ‘miserable winter’ could be on the way.
New figures released by the Department of Health showed a further 9,284 coronavirus cases have been diagnosed, up 24 per cent from last week’s figure of 7,490.
Today’s deaths figure is a slight drop from last week’s total of eight, a sign that the vaccination programme is continuing to keep mortality rates low despite the increase in cases.
Government data up to June 19 showed that of the 73,766,593 jabs given in the UK so far, 42,964,013 were first doses – a rise of 280,241 on the previous day.
Some 31,340,507 were second doses, an increase of 236,363.
However, Professor Calum Semple – a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which advises the Government – today warned that further lockdowns could be a possibility because of the emergence of new respiratory viruses.
Professor Semple told Times Radio: ‘I suspect we’ll have a pretty miserable winter because the other respiratory viruses are going to come back and bite us quite hard.
‘But after that, I think we’ll be seeing business as normal next year.
‘There’s a sting in the tail after every pandemic, because social distancing will have reduced exposure, particularly of pregnant women and their newborn babies, they will have not been exposed to the usual endemic respiratory viruses.’
He added that the above factors could mean the UK has what he called a ‘fourth wave winter’.
The professor added: ‘The protection that a pregnant woman would give to their unborn child has not occurred.
‘So we are going to see a rise in a disease called bronchiolitis, and a rise in community acquired pneumonia in children and in the frail elderly, to the other respiratory viruses for which we don’t have vaccines.
‘So that’s why we’re predicting a rough July, August and then a rough winter period.’
Even though he called it the ‘fourth wave winter’, he said it would be much milder than the previous ones.
Dr Susan Hopkins, the strategic response director for Covid-19 at Public Health England (PHE) also warned of a possible rise in cases at the end of the year.
She told the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show: ‘We may have to do further lockdowns this winter, I can’t predict the future, it really depends on whether the hospitals start to become overwhelmed at some point.
‘But I think we will have alternative ways to manage this, through vaccination, through anti-virals, through drugs, through testing that we didn’t have last winter.
‘All of those things allow us different approaches rather than restrictions on livelihoods that will move us forward into the next phase of learning to live with this as an endemic that happens as part of the respiratory viruses.’
Wedding guest list limit of 30 is lifted from TODAY while care home trips and big wakes are also allowed – but rule of six remains and nightclubs stay shut
New lockdown easing measures will be introduced in England today – though not as many as first hoped.
The Government has pushed back its June 21 ‘Freedom Day’ by four weeks – to July 19 – amid concerns over the Delta variant.
But people in England will be given back some freedoms from today – most of which centre around large scale events and celebrations.
Here MailOnline looks at what people in England can do from June 21, and what rules will be delayed:
Weddings
July and August are widely regarded as the peak months for weddings in the UK. And for those hoping to get hitched this summer, there is good news.
From June 21, the Government is to lift capacity restrictions on weddings, meaning more than 30 people can attend.
The current rules allow up to 30 people to attend weddings and civil partnership ceremonies.
But venues will now be able to choose a safe number of guests themselves, after carrying out risk assessments.
Weddings organised on private land, such as gardens, will also see capacity limits lifted.
However, like private venues, organisers will have to carry out risk assessments prior to the wedding.
And you won’t be able to take to the dance floor at the wedding. Though the couple’s first dance is allowed, dancing is ‘advised against due to the increased risk of transmission’
Congregational and communal singing is also ‘strongly advised against’.
Wakes
Like weddings, wakes have been limited to 30 people. But this has been contentious because funeral limits were lifted in May.
That is changing from June 21. In England, rules on visits outside care homes will be relaxed.
Residents will not have to isolate after spending time away from the care home with family and friends – including overnight stays.
Boris Johnson said: ‘The requirement for residents to isolate for 14 days after visits out of care homes will also be removed in most cases.’
Residents who leave to visit hospital will still have to isolate for 14 days on their return, however.
Nightclubs
Unfortunately, those hoping for a return to the nightclub dancefloor will have to wait at least another month before they can start busting a move again.
Nightclubs have been closed since March last year, when lockdown was first announced in the UK.
Many office workers have been preparing to head back to their desk on June 21.
But the Government is not lifting its work from home guidance today.
Instead, the Government will continue to advise people to work from home where possible.
The rule will remain in place until at least July 19.
Just one in 200 amber list travellers test positive for Covid on their return, figures show as pressure increases on ministers to relax holiday rules
Ministers are today facing calls to relax foreign holiday rules after new data revealed fewer than one in 200 travellers from amber list countries tested positive for Covid.
Just 89 of the 23,465 people who travelled into the UK from amber list countries at the end of last month and the start of this month had a negative Covid test, NHS Test and Trace shows.
The cases all came from just 16 of the 167 countries on the amber list, according to the data.
And there were no cases classed as being ‘variants of concern’ – Alpha, Beta, Delta or Gamma variants – the figures show.
Ministers say the strict foreign travel rules are there to reduce the risk of dangerous variants from reaching the UK.
But the new figures, which cover the period of May 20 to June 9, have led to more calls to relax restrictions – which have caused havoc on the travel industry.
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee of Conservative MPs, told the Times that the Government should start relying on its successful vaccine roll-out.
He told the paper: ‘Vaccination and testing are making international travel safer just as surely as they make things safer within our borders.
‘It’s time British people were able to reap the benefits of the vaccines and for us to get the travel industry moving again.’
Currently there are 167 countries on the UK’s amber travel list, including top holiday hotspots such as Portugal, Spain and Greece.
Travellers from amber list countries are required to self-isolate for 10 days on their arrival in the UK, and take two PCR Covid tests.
Ministers consider letting holidaymakers who have received two doses of Covid vaccine skip quarantine after visiting amber list countries
People who have received two doses of the coronavirus vaccine may not be required to quarantine after going on trips overseas, it emerged today.
Cabinet ministers are considering easing restrictions for double-jabbed UK travellers, while a top Public Health England medic hinted there may be ‘alternatives to isolation’ for fully-vaccinated Britons.
Such a move would help placate the beleaguered travel industry, which has been devastated by restrictions and successive lockdowns more than a year and whose chiefs have warned of a jobs bloodbath.
Under current rules, UK travellers from red list countries must quarantine in a government-approved hotel for 10 days at a cost of £1,750 per person.
Those who leave the quarantine hotel before the end of their 10 days could be handed a £5,000 fine, rising to a maximum of £10,000.
People travelling to the UK from amber list countries have to quarantine for 10 days at home, and will need to present proof of a negative PCR test upon arrival, as well as tests on days two and eight of quarantine.
Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show this morning, Dr Susan Hopkins said: ‘We’ll be looking at the evidence from other countries.
‘We’ve talked a lot to countries like Israel who are ahead of us in the vaccination campaign, and they are now really looking at allowing people to come into their country who’ve had two vaccines and not needing to isolate.
‘And they are allowing their population to travel more.
‘We will need to be alert and will need to consider how we can measure the response of these vaccines to new variants that come along.
‘But we are moving steps forward, and I think that in a time in the future, I’m not sure when, I can imagine a situation where we will have alternatives to isolation for people who have two doses of the vaccine.’
Responding to Dr Hopkins’ remarks, Justice Secretary Robert Buckland said the Government has not ruled out relaxing restrictions, such as on foreign travel and self-isolation, for those who have received both vaccines.
‘I think experts like Susan Hopkins are absolutely right to remind us the evidence is still developing on double vaccinations,’ he told the BBC.
‘It looks great, it looks really encouraging, we’re trying to be as flexible as we can. We will keep on looking at all these proposals and flexes as appropriate.’
These tests are the figures that are provided by NHS Test and Trace.
The figures also show there were no Covid cases recorded from arrivals from green list countries – of which there are currently 11 destinations including Iceland and Gibraltar.
Arrivals from green list countries do not have to quarantine on their arrival in the UK.
From red list countries, which require entrants to the UK to quarantine in specific hotels, 435 of the 24,511 people arriving from red list countries had coronavirus.
Of those cases, 89 variants of concern were detected.
It comes as it is revealed today that people who have received two doses of the coronavirus vaccine may not be required to quarantine after going on trips overseas.
Cabinet ministers are considering easing restrictions for double-jabbed UK travellers, while a top Public Health England medic hinted there may be ‘alternatives to isolation’ for fully-vaccinated Britons.
Such a move would help placate the beleaguered travel industry, which has been devastated by restrictions and successive lockdowns more than a year and whose chiefs have warned of a jobs bloodbath.
Under current rules, UK travellers from red list countries must quarantine in a government-approved hotel for 10 days at a cost of £1,750 per person.
Those who leave the quarantine hotel before the end of their 10 days could be handed a £5,000 fine, rising to a maximum of £10,000.
People travelling to the UK from amber list countries have to quarantine for 10 days at home, and will need to present proof of a negative PCR test upon arrival, as well as tests on days two and eight of quarantine.
Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show this morning, Dr Susan Hopkins said: ‘We’ll be looking at the evidence from other countries.
‘We’ve talked a lot to countries like Israel who are ahead of us in the vaccination campaign, and they are now really looking at allowing people to come into their country who’ve had two vaccines and not needing to isolate.
‘And they are allowing their population to travel more.
‘We will need to be alert and will need to consider how we can measure the response of these vaccines to new variants that come along.
‘But we are moving steps forward, and I think that in a time in the future, I’m not sure when, I can imagine a situation where we will have alternatives to isolation for people who have two doses of the vaccine.’
Meanwhile Covid cases have risen by a quarter in the last week and another six people have died from the virus, as a SAGE expert warned a ‘miserable winter’ could be on the way.
New figures released by the Department of Health showed a further 9,284 coronavirus cases have been diagnosed, up 24 per cent from last week’s figure of 7,490.
Today’s deaths figure is a slight drop from last week’s total of eight, a sign that the vaccination programme is continuing to keep mortality rates low despite the increase in cases.
Government data up to June 19 showed that of the 73,766,593 jabs given in the UK so far, 42,964,013 were first doses – a rise of 280,241 on the previous day.
Some 31,340,507 were second doses, an increase of 236,363.
However, Professor Calum Semple – a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which advises the Government – today warned that further lockdowns could be a possibility because of the emergence of new respiratory viruses.
Professor Semple told Times Radio: ‘I suspect we’ll have a pretty miserable winter because the other respiratory viruses are going to come back and bite us quite hard.
‘But after that, I think we’ll be seeing business as normal next year.
‘There’s a sting in the tail after every pandemic, because social distancing will have reduced exposure, particularly of pregnant women and their newborn babies, they will have not been exposed to the usual endemic respiratory viruses.’
He added that the above factors could mean the UK has what he called a ‘fourth wave winter’.
The professor added: ‘The protection that a pregnant woman would give to their unborn child has not occurred.
‘So we are going to see a rise in a disease called bronchiolitis, and a rise in community acquired pneumonia in children and in the frail elderly, to the other respiratory viruses for which we don’t have vaccines.
‘So that’s why we’re predicting a rough July, August and then a rough winter period.’
Even though he called it the ‘fourth wave winter’, he said it would be much milder than the previous ones.
Dr Susan Hopkins, the strategic response director for Covid-19 at Public Health England (PHE) also warned of a possible rise in cases at the end of the year.
She told the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show: ‘We may have to do further lockdowns this winter, I can’t predict the future, it really depends on whether the hospitals start to become overwhelmed at some point.
‘But I think we will have alternative ways to manage this, through vaccination, through anti-virals, through drugs, through testing that we didn’t have last winter.
‘All of those things allow us different approaches rather than restrictions on livelihoods that will move us forward into the next phase of learning to live with this as an endemic that happens as part of the respiratory viruses.’
It comes as thousands of Covid-19 jabs are being administered at stadiums and football grounds in London which were transformed into mass vaccination centres.
Giant jab clinics have been set up at the Olympic Stadium, Stamford Bridge, Tottenham Hotspur FC, Charlton Athletic FC, Selhurst Park and Crystal Palace Athletics Centre.
Smaller events are also taking place in local community venues in a drive to vaccinate as many Londoners as possible.
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan said he was ‘delighted’ to visit Chelsea’s ground at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea FC had 6,000 Pfizer vaccines to administer on Saturday, with the jab being offered to all adults over the age of 18 yet to receive a first dose, as well as those awaiting a second Pfizer dose.
Mr Khan said: ‘Chelsea FC, West Ham at the London Stadium, Tottenham Hotspur FC, Charlton Athletic FC, are hosting large-scale pop-up clinics, and there are a huge number of events taking place in local community centres, so that as many people as possible get convenient access to the life-saving Covid jabs.
‘You do not need to be registered with a GP to get vaccinated.
‘It is great news that more than eight million doses of the life-saving Covid-19 vaccine have been given to Londoners, and now all adults over the age of 18 are able to get the jab.’
Boris Johnson’s chances of success at this autumn’s crucial COP26 global warming conference in Glasgow hang in the balance after the G7 failed to deliver significant new pledges on climate finance at their three-day summit in Cornwall, campaigners have warned.
Despite the prime minister’s promises of a new green package to match the US funding of reconstruction of post-war Europe, the gathering of leading global powers at Carbis Bay delivered “a partial plan not a Marshall plan”, said Christian Aid.
A communiqué issued by the G7 states – the UK, US, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan – promised that each would “increase and improve” their contributions towards a promise made 11 years ago for rich nations to spend $100bn (£71bn) annually helping poorer countries adapt to global warming.
But specific pledges came only from Canada, which doubled its commitment to $4.4bn (£3.1bn) over the next five years, and Germany, which promised to increase spending by €2bn to €6bn (£5.2bn) a year by 2025.
After being addressed by Sir David Attenborough on the urgency of action, the group of major democracies also promised to move away from using coal plants without carbon capture technology.
But they gave neither a detailed plan for how to make the change or a target date to achieve it – though they did agree to stop subsidising new coal-fuelled power generation in developing countries from next year.
Meanwhile, former prime minster Gordon Brown branded the summit an “unforgivable moral failure” after the G7 nations pledged only 870 million of the 11 billion vaccine doses which the World Health Organisation says are needed to inoculate the world by next year, and made no new pledges on vaccine financing.
A defensive Mr Johnson denied that Brexit wars and his huge overseas aid cuts had fatally undermined the summit – his first appearance as host on the global stage, five months ahead of the United Nations climate conference in Glasgow.
At a closing press conference, he insisted that “great commitments” had been made to try to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees, and said the target to vaccinate the world by the end of next year will be done “very largely thanks to the efforts of the countries who have come here today”.
A Build Back Better fund would give access to finance for developing countries to develop infrastructure in a clean and sustainable way, as an alternative to financing from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, he said.
And he said he “rejected outright” the suggestion that his £4bn-a-year cut in UK international aid spending had undermined his moral authority to secure commitments from other countries.
Asked about a diplomatic spat with France over the UK’s failure to implement the Northern Ireland protocol, Mr Johnson insisted it had not deflected from the agenda he had set out.
The “vast, vast majority of conversations” had been about “other subjects”, he insisted, claiming: “There has been a fantastic degree of harmony between the leaders of our countries.”
But Max Lawson, from Oxfam, said: “This G7 Summit will live on in infamy. Faced with the biggest health emergency in a century and a climate catastrophe that is destroying our planet, they have completely failed to meet the challenges of our times.
“The G7 have chosen to cook the books on vaccines and continue to cook the planet. We don’t need to wait for history to judge this summit a colossal failure, it is plain for all to see.”
And the Civil Society 7 (C7) group of charities said: “Without 10 billion vaccines, the removal of patents and investment in healthcare systems pledges to inoculate the world by the end of next year ring hollow.
“Multiple commitments for climate action have been made and remade. Yet even after this summit, we are still short of the significant climate finance needed.”
Friends of the Earth spokesperson Jamie Peters said: “We have seen lovely words about the importance of climate change, but unless there is thorough funding and these words properly put into action, this weekend just amounts to staged set-pieces and polished speeches. Climate breakdown has to be treated as the absolute global emergency it clearly is. That means a detailed plan for doing something from the world’s leaders.”
Christian Aid director of policy Patrick Watt said that the meagre progress at Carbis Bay boded ill for Glasgow, where the UN is hoping for a decisive step forward from the commitments made in Paris in 2015 to keep global heating within 2 degrees celsius.
“The US committed 6.5 per cent of its post-war GDP to the Marshall Plan,” said Mr Watt. “The UK, in contrast, has reneged on an aid promise one-tenth as ambitious.
“The G7 needed to progress comprehensive debt relief, deliver on climate finance promises, and act to end vaccine apartheid. The G7 leadership has failed to make real progress in any of these areas.
“The success of the COP26 climate summit now hangs in the balance. There is still time for rich nations to deliver a solidarity package that tackles these interconnected crises. Without it, the COP will fail.”
Mr Johnson said there had been “big pledges around the table” on climate finance, with the UK itself giving £11.6bn, adding: “I do think that we can get there.”
And he argued: “The world was looking to us to reject some of the selfishness and nationalist approaches that have marred the initial global response to the pandemic, and to channel all our diplomatic, economic and scientific might into defeating Covid for good.
“And I do hope we have lived up to some of the most optimistic of hopes and predictions.”
But Labour’s shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy said: “This was the most important G7 for a generation. But instead of agreeing concrete plans to tackle the biggest global challenges, Boris Johnson’s strained relationship with fellow world leaders has taken centre stage and derailed this crucial summit.
“By every measure, the prime minister’s summit has come up short. No clear plan to vaccinate the world by the end of 2022. No ambitious commitments to place the path on the path to climate safety.
“With less than six months until COP26, the government must raise the ambition and work constructively with countries across the world to deliver for people in Britain and around the world.”
Vaccination rates are on the decline in the United States, leaving officials scrambling to figure out how to get needles in arms. The CDC’s announcement that people who are fully vaccinated can go without masks inside and outside might help. But some places are getting more creative. The incentives being offered — ranging from free beer to savings bonds to a chance at $1 million — make total sense given how important the vaccine campaign is, Hayes Brown writes.
“The best reason for getting the Covid-19 vaccine is, of course, not having either yourself, your loved ones, or your neighbors get infected and potentially die from a virus that has killed almost 600,000 Americans,” Brown writes. “But $1 million is a pretty good runner-up, I have to say.”
Critics of the digital systems argue they discriminate against those who cannot get vaccinated.
But Mr. Griffiths says he is a complete supporter of the documents, which he says are “inevitable”.
“I think the problem is not the vaccine passport and its discrimination. It’s the need to roll things out and have a proper globally equitable vaccine programme,” he said.
The World Health Organisation and World Travel & Tourism Council are among those opposed to vaccine passports amid fears they will create a “two-tier society“.
Last month, Dr. Mike Ryan from the WHO repeated concerns about the ethical and fairness issues surrounding vaccine passports.
“They do need to be considered, especially in a world where vaccine is distributed in such a grossly inequitable way,” he said. End
But there places where the issue is taken even more seriously, and others where the whispers need to be silenced and put aside immediately.
A trial of an experimental coronavirus vaccine detected the most sobering signal yet that people who have recovered from infections are not completely protected against a variant that originated in South Africa and is spreading rapidly, preliminary data presented this week suggests.
The finding, though far from conclusive, has potential implications for how the pandemic will be brought under control, underscoring the critical role of vaccination, including for people who have already recovered from infections. Reaching herd immunity — the threshold when enough people achieve protection and the virus can’t seed new outbreaks — will depend on a mass vaccination campaign that has been constrained by limited supply.
Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, noted that it appears a vaccine is better than natural infection in protecting people, calling it “a big, strong plug to get vaccinated” and a reality check for people who may have assumed that because they have already been infected, they are immune.
In the placebo group of the trial for Novavax’s vaccine, people with prior coronavirus infections appeared just as likely to get sick as people without them, meaning they weren’t fully protected against the B.1.351 variant that has swiftly become dominant in South Africa. The variant has been detected only a handful of times in the United States, including a case reported Friday in Virginia, which became the third state to identify the presence of the virus variant.
The preliminary finding from the South African vaccine trial, based on a data set with limitations, stirred debate and concern among researchers as results first hinted at in a news release last week were revealed more broadly this week.
“The data really are quite suggestive: The level of immunity that you get from natural infection — either the degree of immunity, the intensity of the immunity or the breadth of immunity — is obviously not enough to protect against infection with the mutant,” Fauci said.
Even if they don’t agree on the scope of the threat, scientists said reinfection with new variants is clearly a risk that needs to be explored more. There is no evidence that second cases are more severe or deadly, and a world in which people may have imperfect protection against new versions of the virus is not necessarily a world in which the pandemic never ends.
“I worry especially that some of these premature sweeping conclusions being made could rob people of hope,” said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Georgetown University’s Center for Global Health Science and Security. “I worry the message they may receive is that we’re never going to be rid of this. When in fact that’s not what the data suggests.”
She and others emphasized the apparent lack of severe health repercussions from reinfection — and the lack of evidence that reinfection is common.
When Maryland biotechnology company Novavax first disclosed results from two international vaccine trials last week, the company noted in its news release that some people in the trial with earlier infections had become reinfected, probably with the variant B.1.351, which had become dominant during the trial.
On Tuesday, details of the Novavax trial were presented at the New York Academy of Sciences.
About 30 percent of the people in the South African trial had antibodies in their blood at the start of the trial showing they had recovered from an earlier infection.
But that previous exposure didn’t necessarily appear to afford protection. Among those who got saltwater shots, the people with a prior infection got sick at the same rate as study participants who had not been previously infected — a surprise because they would have been expected to have some immunity. Nearly 4 percent of people who had a previous infection were reinfected, an almost identical rate to those with no history of infection.
“It’s awful strong data,” said Larry Corey, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle who is co-leading the federal clinical trial network testing coronavirus vaccines in the United States. “Basically, it’s saying vaccination actually needs to be better than natural immunity. But vaccination is better than natural immunity.”
The study found that two shots of the experimental vaccine did provide protection against the variant.
The reinfection result was incidental to the main objective of the study, which was to determine the vaccine’s efficacy and safety. It was not designed to test the likelihood of reinfection, and others argued that it can’t be used to draw firm conclusions and cautioned against assuming that the previous infection provided no protection.
It also shows the risks of a strategy to reach herd immunity pushed by Scott Atlas, a neuroradiologist and adviser to President Donald Trump, who is said to have endorsed allowing the virus to spread mostly unfettered, while protecting nursing homes and other vulnerable populations. Atlas has repeatedly denied backing such a strategy.
The study backs up recent laboratory data from South African researchers analyzing blood plasma from recovered patients. Nearly half of the plasma samples had no detectable ability to block the variant from infecting cells in a laboratory dish. In a separate study, scientists at Rockefeller University in New York took blood plasma from people who had been vaccinated and found that vaccine-generated antibodies were largely able to block mutations found on the B.1.351 variant.
Novavax did not provide a breakdown of mild, moderate, and severe cases, but severe cases of covid-19 were rare in the trial, suggesting that reinfection is unlikely to send people to the hospital.
“It is not surprising to see reinfection in individuals who are convalescent. And it would not be surprising to see infection in people who are vaccinated, especially a few months out from vaccine,” said Michel Nussenzweig, head of the Laboratory of Molecular Immunology at Rockefeller University. “The key is not whether people get reinfected, it’s whether they get sick enough to be hospitalized.”
Reinfection has always been a possibility, but scientists who design disease models had assumed that natural infection would convey some level of immunity for at least a few months. That figured into some earlier calculations for how America could start approaching herd immunity by this summer or fall. Even with limited vaccination supply and delays in distribution, the hope was that people previously infected would factor in the drive toward herd immunity.
If it turns out that previously infected people could be susceptible to reinfection by variants, that could have implications for when the nation reaches herd immunity.
“Everyone’s still trying to digest this and asking, is this really what’s happening? Because the implications are pretty huge,” said Chris Murray, who leads the modeling team at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. “If the data holds true, it means we will need to walk the public back on the idea of how close we are to the finish line for ending this pandemic.”
Others are less sure. Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, said he couldn’t draw clear conclusions from the data because it remains limited and preliminary.
“The pace has been dizzying, and several times today, I have learned new things that significantly change my view of those data,” Lipsitch said.
Projections created by data scientist Youyang Gu — whose pandemic models have been cited by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — suggest that about 65 percent of America’s population will reach immunity by June 1. But built into that 65 percent is roughly 20 percent having immunity from past infections only. Scientists are unsure how the potential for reinfection might influence their projections. They are eager to see if other vaccine trial data in the coming weeks will corroborate the trend from the Novavax trial.
“The sample size so far is small,” Gu said. “We need much more data before we can draw conclusions.”
More data from South Africa will help clarify how common reinfection is and whether it results in severe disease. Researchers are following up with certain groups, such as health-care workers, to quantify reinfection, said Anne von Gottberg, co-head of the Center for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis at South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases.
“Several individual cases of reinfection have been confirmed,” Gottberg said in an email. “We may be able to learn from seasonal coronaviruses and the fact that reinfection for these viruses are not uncommon, and start to occur 6 to 12 months after the previous infection.”
The good news is that vaccine trials from Johnson & Johnson and Novavax show that vaccines can work — even against the B.1.351 variant, and particularly in preventing severe illness.
“I think the fact that we … now have data from two vaccines indicating that we can prevent serious disease, even against the new variant, is hopeful,” Penny Moore, a scientist at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in Johannesburg, said in an email. “We need to keep monitoring sequences as these won’t be the last lineages.”
A future concern needing close monitoring is whether the reformulation of vaccines to keep up with the evolving virus could drive the virus to continue evolving. There is also a concern that subpar immunity could allow new resistant variants to emerge. That possibility, Nussenzweig said, is one reason that people should get both doses of a vaccine, on time.
