By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Apr. 12, 2021, 7:48 AM AST Copied
Hours after an initial eruption of the La Soufriere volcano on the
Caribbean island of St. Vincent, a second explosion was reported,
resulting in a massive plume of smoke and ash.
The largest volcano on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent erupted on Friday in spectacular fashion, sending an ash plume shooting an estimated 52,000 feet into the atmosphere and forcing the evacuation of thousands.
Through the weekend, much of the island was covered in ash from the eruptions that continued on through Friday night. By Sunday night, eruptions were firing up again as conditions worsened.
Dozens of residents required rescuing from the northern part of the island as the new dangers place even more islanders at risk.
A man rides his bicycle along the main Black Rock road, covered with ash coming from the eruption of La Soufriere volcano in the neighboring island of St. Vincent, on the outskirts of Bridgetown, Barbados, Sunday, April 11, 2021. (AP Photo/Chris Brandis)
Richard Robertson, a geologist with the University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre, said during a Sunday night news conference that there is evidence of pyroclastic flows, the rush of super-heated gas and debris traveling down the mountainside as fast as 120 miles per hour, in the areas around the volcano, NPR reported.
“These flows are really moving masses of destruction,” Robertson said.
“They just destroy everything in its path. Even if you have the
strongest house in the world, they will just bulldoze it off the
ground.”
The abrupt eruptions continued to launch debris and a cloud of ash into the air throughout Sunday night, leaving its remnants scattered throughout the island.
On Saturday, he said the roughly 110,000 residents of St. Vincent, many of whom have already sought refuge on other islands, should expect to see the largest blast of their lifetimes in the coming days
“The explosive eruption has started and it is possible you could have more explosions like these,” he said during a press conference on Saturday, according to NPR. “The first one is not necessarily the worst one, the first bang is not necessarily the biggest bang this volcano will give.”
The volcano on the island of St. Vincent in the Caribbean appears to be erupting again with several plumes in the last few hours. pic.twitter.com/2BgHXe7jF9
The volcano on the island of St. Vincent in the Caribbean appears to be erupting again with several plumes in the last few hours. pic.twitter.com/2BgHXe7jF9
Very early Sunday morning, the National Emergency Management Organization of St. Vincent and the Grenadines (NEMO SVG) said on Twitter that a “massive power outage” was underway following another “explosive event” of the volcano. The island-wide power outage began just after 1 a.m., local time, on Sunday morning as loud rumblings continued to emit from the volcano, according to News 784 in St. Vincent.
The Prime Minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Ralph Gonsalves said water supplies to most of the island had been cut off and its airspace had been closed due to the smoke and plumes of volcanic ash moving through the atmosphere, according to the BBC.
St. Vincent is a volcanic island located in the Lesser Antilles of the
Caribbean and is home to La Soufrière, its largest volcano.
The NEMO SVG reported later in the morning that the ash plume had reached about 5 miles (8 km) into the air, and ash had fallen at Argyle International Airport. A NOAA-SSEC satellite estimated that the ash traveled an astonishing 52,000 feet into the atmosphere, or about 10 miles up.
Photo from the explosive eruption that occurred at La Soufriere, SVG at 8:41 a.m. local time. Ash has begun to fall on the flanks of the volcano and surrounding communities including Chateaubelair and Petite Bordel. (Photo/UWI Seismic ReasearchCentre)
The explosion of ash was so large that it was visible from space on weather satellites. Southwesterly winds carried the cloud of ash over northern parts of St. Vincent and over the waters of the western Atlantic Ocean between the islands of Saint Lucia and Barbados.
NEMO reported that the ash was extending at least 20,000 feet (more than 6 km) to the northeast of the volcano.
This GOES-16 true-color satellite loop shows what the La Soufriere volcano eruption looked like from space on the morning of April 9, 2021 (GOES-16/NOAA)
Geologist Richard Robertson told News 784 in St. Vincent on Friday that the volcano had returned to a quieter period, but more eruptions are expected to follow.
A second eruption occurred later Friday evening, NEMO reported, jettisoning ash over 2 miles into the atmosphere.
Ash venting resumed at La Soufrière at around 2:45 p.m. local time, the UWI Seismic Research Center reported Friday evening, and lightning could be seen in the ash column. Continuous tremors have been recorded since 3 p.m., and the center noted that the volcano continues its explosive phase which may last several days to weeks.
Friday afternoon, lightning was visible in the volcano’s ash column due to its highly charged nature. (Photo/UWI Seismic Research Centre)
”If there is a much bigger explosion, the ash can spread further to the south,“ Robertson said, adding that, “This could continue for days or weeks, and monitoring will continue.”
As seismic activity continued and became more intense, with magma visible near the surface later on Thursday, the country’s National Emergency Management Organization raised the island’s alert level from orange to red, according to NPR, meaning that eruption was considered “imminent”.
Smoke spews from the glowing dome of the La Soufriere volcano in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines on Thursday, April 8, 2021 (right), and the resulting eruption (left) on Friday, April 9, 2021. (Photos/The UWI Seismic Research Centre)
Around 6:00 p.m. Thursday, Gonsalves announced in a press conference the evacuation order for residents in “red zones” on the northeast and northwest sides of the island.
I have issued an evacuation order to all residents living in the RED ZONES on the North East and the North West of the island. All residents are asked to act accordingly with immediate effect to ensure their safety and that of their families. pic.twitter.com/AJQlCDtOPg
I have issued an evacuation order to all residents living in the RED ZONES on the North East and the North West of the island. All residents are asked to act accordingly with immediate effect to ensure their safety and that of their families. pic.twitter.com/AJQlCDtOPg
I have issued an evacuation order to all residents living in the RED ZONES on the North East and the North West of the island. All residents are asked to act accordingly with immediate effect to ensure their safety and that of their families. pic.twitter.com/AJQlCDtOPg
Gonsalves said in his press conference that people have to be vaccinated before boarding a cruise ship or to go to another island. The minister also highly recommended those taking shelter in Saint Vincent be vaccinated.
According to CNN, the La Soufrière volcano on St. Vincent has had five explosive eruptions in the past, with the most recent being 1979. There was, however, an uptick in seismic activity more recently in December of 2020.
Gonsalves urged people to be patient and continue to take precautions as experts warned that explosive eruptions from the volcano could continue for days or even weeks, NBC News reported.
In an interview with NBC Radio, Gonsalves said that it could take up to four months for life to return to normal, depending on the extent of the damage. He added that agriculture will be badly affected.
In extremely powerful volcanic eruptions, the ash and aerosols released in the eruption can pass through the troposphere, the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere, and penetrate into the stratosphere, the second layer of the atmosphere.
If enough of the ash and other pollutants released in the eruption make it into the stratosphere, they can influence the climate around the globe. The boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere is about 6 miles (10 km) above the ground, a little higher than where commercial jets typically fly.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Joe Biden (Photo illustration by Salon/Getty Images)
President Joe Biden proposed a $2 trillion federal spending package on Wednesday that would revamp the country’s crumbling infrastructure, taking specific aim at pollution, job creation, housing, and corporate taxes. But many on the left who have championed the Green New Deal say the president’s plan isn’t big enough.
“This is not nearly enough,” tweeted Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y, regarding the size of the bill. “The important context here is that it’s $2.25T spread out over 10 years. For context, the COVID package was $1.9T for this year *alone,* with some provisions lasting 2 years. Needs to be way bigger.
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“I think it’s a step towards our vision of a Green New Deal,” Ellen Sciales, a spokesperson for Sunrise Movement, echoed.
“But the truth is this does not meet the scale and the scope of what we
need to meet the true scale and urgency of the climate crisis.”
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., a member of the Environment and Public Works Committee, likewise called the bill a “fine starting point.”
Under Biden’s current proposal, the federal government would, among other measures, allot $621 billion to transportation infrastructures such as bridges, ports, and roads; put $580 billion toward American manufacturing, job training, and research and development; designate $400 billion to care for elderly and disabled Americans; invest $300 billion into constructing and repairing affordable housing, as well as schools; infuse the U.S. electric vehicle industry with $174 billion, and dedicate $5 billion to repair every lead pipe and service line nationally.
“These are investments we have to make,” Biden said of the bill on Wednesday. “We can afford to make them. To put it another way — we can’t afford not to.”
However, many progressive Democrats have already proposed a spate of separate bills designed to expand the bill’s scope of influence. For instance, Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Rep. Andry Levin, D-Mich., introduced a bill that would subsidize the purchase of sustainable products made in America.
The Progressive Congressional Caucus on Monday floated the Transform, Heal and Renew by Investing in a Vibrant Economy (THRIVE) Act, which calls for a $10 trillion investment in green infrastructure, renewable energy, and other climate justice measures over the next decade. The bill heavily addresses racial inequality and dedicates 40% of federal investments to minority groups that have been “excluded, oppressed and harmed by racist unjust practices.”
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“We are facing a series of intersecting crises,” Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass, the bill’s co-sponsor, said. “Climate change, a public health pandemic, racial injustice and economic inequality. We can’t defeat any of these crises alone. We must develop a roadmap for recovery that addresses them all.”
An analysis conducted by the Sierra Club, an environmental nonprofit, found that the THRIVE Act would generate 15 million jobs. The bill is part of a broader push spearheaded by Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, who unveiled the THRIVE agenda when she was representative for New Mexico. According to Data for Progress, Haaland’s agenda drew broad support from Americans, especially swing voters.
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“We need a plan that will end the unemployment crisis, but we need this plan to also fight systemic racism, protect public health and drastically cut down on climate pollution,” Markey said. “We cannot go back to business as usual. We have a chance to truly, in this moment, to build back better and greener than ever before.”
Jon Skolnik
Jon Skolnik is a staff writer at Salon. His work has appeared in Current Affairs, The Baffler, AlterNet, and The New York Daily News. MORE FROM Jon Skolnik • FOLLOW @skolnik_jon
Year after year, particularly in the spring and fall Americans lament Daylight Saving Time, an antiquated way of adjusting the time to help preserve as much light as possible. Many believe it was due to the U.S. agrarian society, but according to the History Channel’s factoids, the agriculture industry actually opposed it.
Germany was the first country to implement the idea on April 30, 1916, and the U.S. first did it in 1918, with Congress attempting to repeal it in 1919.
Sens. Marco Rubio (R-FL), James Lankford (R-OK), Roy Blunt (R-MO), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Ron Wyden (D-OR), Cindy Hide-Smith (R-MS), Rick Scott (R-FL), and Ed Markey (D-MA) are all endorsing the Sunshine Protection Act, according to a release. Fifteen states have changed their Daylight Saving Time rules and dozens more are also considering doing it. States include Arkansas, Alabama, California, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
The time was once isolated to just a few states, but now that there are more states it can create more confusion. The growing list of states is causing more problems as Americans start traveling again and have no idea whether a state is observing the time change or not.
In a Government of Montserrat release, for what or any significance that may be attached, superstitiously or otherwise, it declared that July 15, 2020, was “declared a public holiday on Montserrat, in observance of 25 years since the start of volcanic activity.”
It almost evaded my attention until the very day, having not seen the promised “order of service” which, “with other details was to be published at a later date. Meantime the day July 15, would be “observed as a National Day of Prayer, Reflection, and Thanksgiving, under the theme ‘25 Years on, we are still here’. The National Day of Prayer and Thanksgiving service will be held at 5:00 p.m. at the Look Out Catholic Church.”
Yet to be forgotten as a time in history, with Montserrat
is not yet near a place or time a quarter of a century (25 years) later that it
can say the loss was for better days, as it has been for others with somewhat
similar experience.
It is still confusing why that holiday was not
given on the eve which was Friday.
As for the theme, which seemed an effort at expressing some pride by those saying it, but to me, it is quite empty. Giving God thanks, of course, but…
Five
years ago, remembering this day from 20 years prior, in the article under a
headline caption “Bringing 20 year volcanic crisis perspectives – Recapturing:
THE VOLCANO and DEATH, we opened: “In this week’s issue we mostly feature articles and reports
from first issues after July 18, 1995 and from immediately after June 25, 1997.
“This, especially in light of
discussions that have taken place as a committee set up to plan the 20th-year
anniversary of the beginning of what is still referred to as the eruption of
Soufriere Hills volcano; “where we came from, where we ought to be, and where
we want to go.”
There were some memorable times from that commemoration. It is that which makes us declare the theme of this year’s Thanksgiving seems wrong. Expect more on this.
At that time we also wrote referring
to articles from 1995 on…, “… we still hope our readers may now, following,
hearing or having heard or followed the debate and discussions, make their own
determination as to where we are and know where we are going.
We wish the conversation now would be updated with real pride but we still find we must say, Really, as is said it is time for action. “Everyone”, they say, “has their part to play.” And isn’t odd though that those last words, we have heard them time and time again. Still more to come.
So like 20 years ago and often enough we present as we recapture for the benefit of going forward and for those who might now get a sense of then.
It is fifteen years on and featured speaker Bishop Melroy Meade said that one day was not enough. In a passionate message, he called for a week of Thanksgiving during which time residents would give thanks to God for his protection, preservation, and faithfulness over the last fifteen years. The congregation that came together to give God thanks appeared to have agreed with him.
Bishop Meade likened the experience in Montserrat to that of Job when everything he had was taken away, but he pointed to a better day which is coming. He also referred to the determination, resoluteness, and pride of a people who have suffered greatly. Like Job, people don’t understand what Montserratians went through but when they become familiar with the island, the resilience of the people they too want to embrace it, he said.
According to Bishop Meade, “The truth is our trials come
to make us strong and life cost what it cost and it never goes on sale.”
One of the conditions the British Governor of Montserrat and the local Government never wanted to exist, is that they would ever have to report that lives were lost as a direct result of volcanic activity in Montserrat.
On the night of July 18, 1995, residents not far away from Soufriere Hills could hear what they later described as roaring sounds like those that come from jet planes, and it was soon realized by all that a volcano that lay in waiting at English Crater in Soufriere Hills had come alive.
Soon after from several and continuous radio broadcasts, and interviews from scientists, the Governor and the Chief Minister, his office and the offices of the Emergency Operating Centre (EOC), we were to learn that there has always been this volcano, that there have been activities at approximately 30 – 35-year intervals since the turn of this century; that there have been studies, one as recent as the mid-80s, which suggested that there will be serious activities around this time.
No attention whatever was paid to these facts and so here we were in July, less than a month under two years ago, with an erupting volcano and every resident as ignorant as ever to the dangers that this could pose for Montserrat. Since that time it has been a downhill battle, which may have not yet culminated, but which has now directly claimed the lives of at least 10 people with more almost certain to be confirmed when the ash becomes cool enough to be cleared in some way.
Home demolished by the power and volume of the flow
June 25, 1997, will be long remembered as the worst day of the volcano (I hope) because lives were lost. And the question that is being asked, “Could this have been avoided?” Amazingly, the homes in Long Ground are still standing untouched but for the September 17 last year’s eruption. It may well be that the Tar River valley is their protection or perhaps it is early yet.
MVO Reports
The Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) report for that morning read as follows: The latest earthquake swarm has just reached a peak, with 4 or 5 earthquakes occurring every minute. At the time of the highest activity, the hybrid earthquakes could more accurately be described as continuous tremors. There have been several small pyroclastic flows in Mosquito Ghaut in the last hour. Observations of the dome last night showed that the top of Mosquito Ghaut is the only active area of the dome at the moment, as the focus of activity has switched from the eastern side to the north in the last few days.
Further pyroclastic flow activity is expected, and the high level of activity means that these flows could happen at any time and be larger than before. The current area of activity makes Mosquito Ghaut the most likely pathway, but further flows in Gages, Tuitt’s, or Tar River are probable as well.”
The following recently became a standard part of the report: Bramble Airport remains operational, but the public is reminded that it is open only for essential travel purposes. The sirens will be tested as usual this afternoon.”
Now following is the evening report following the disaster: “An intense swarm of hybrid earthquakes began at 11 a.m., and rapidly escalated to repetitive events which merged into continuous tremor after 12:15 p.m. At about 1 p.m. major pyroclastic flow activity began in Mosquito Ghaut, which generated an ash cloud to over 30,000 ft within minutes. The flow traveled into Farms River to Trants Bridge. Downriver of Bramble, the flows fanned out into Bethel and Spanish Point almost to the sea. On the northern side, Farms and Trants villages were affected, and the surge reached to Trants bridge. A total of at least 2 square kilometers of land was covered by the pyroclastic flow and surge.
The lower half of Harris village was also impacted, and an ash surge traveled from the Farrell’s area down to the west at least as far as Dyers, and into the upper reaches of Dyer’s Ghaut. There was no activity in the Gages valley during the afternoon.
During the time of the reported activities above, there were people tending their animals and gardens in the Farrell’s and surrounding areas, some of whom perished; there were people in Harris’ and areas way down to Trants, Bethel and Spanish Pointe, Bramble village, etc. who were either visiting their properties or living there. Except for those properties on the perimeter of Mosquito Ghaut in Harris’, individuals were able to avoid the fury of the ash surge from the flow by moving to even higher grounds, but not those in the other areas which were all on lower ground and not far from the ghaut which became more shallow as it nears the sea.
So that just as the report above described, confirmed by the eye witness account of Roy ‘Slim’ Daley from Bramble village who was in Harris’ at the time. He said: “I saw the surges coming back up the hill from the pyroclastic flows, which moved at incredible speed down towards Farms and Trants, breaking over the walls at Brambles and rushing down towards Spanish Pointe through Bethel.”
Fatalities
Soon we were to hear the calls of the authorities for persons to advise them of persons who were known to have been in the areas for one reason another. Both the Governor and the Chief Minister appeared on the radio to tell the nation about the rescue efforts that were underway, never admitting then that there might be fatalities following the activities.
But having seen the results of the forerunning pyroclastic flows, I was certain that the persons who I discovered were in their homes or in the area, had met an unfortunate end.
Other than the sketchy and well-monitored reports that came from Government Information Unit (GIU) and ZJB, the rest of the local media was reduced to press conferences which were cut short and severely limited by interviewees who gave much too long answers, having been denied views from the helicopter or access to the area other than the rest of the general public was entitled to.
By the end of the following day, the admission of fatalities was announced and the count grew each day from four to ten by Monday. It was on Saturday when the CM came close to saying that there may be more dead who are still difficult to get to because of the still searing hot ash that lay deposited on the ground.
THE DISASTER
Helicopters involved in the search and rescue missions
I was finally afforded a trip to look at the damage done on Wednesday by EMAD, on a helicopter which is one of four helicopters brought in from different sources to aid the ‘search and rescue’ effort.
The trip was not like any I’ve had and did not afford me the opportunity for detail as I rode with David Brandt and 2 others, plus Caribbean Broadcasting Union (CBU) cameraman and video cameras. with another from Trinidad. It was only a 20-minute trip, far too short.
However, the devastation is much greater than I imagined. The lands (forest) between Tuitts and Mosquito Ghauts is no more. Although not filled with material the pyroclastic was extremely powerful as it left the volcano and that’s when the surge immediately went over Farrells and down Streatham and across Windy Hill. The Farrells estate house is completely gone and so is Mandy’s garage on the corner below the graveyard. It went through the bottom of Windy Hill and well across and into the ghaut beyond.
Escapee
One eye witness woman who escaped and who eventually went back to collect money she left in a vehicle, found it but had walked via Water Works, retracing her steps to get to it. She said she had to go reap the carrots because she was under so much pressure from the government to supply vegetables to shelters.
She got the money but the vehicle she had to leave. She described the flow that she saw as “sweet oil” running down the hill, noting how the flow backed up when the heat.
Looking down on the Harris’ road Mosquito ghaut is next to it. The surge reached across the road to the Police Station and burnt all those houses including the Church. These were not completely demolished but nevertheless destroyed, from the Morgan’s house down the hill towards farm, then there is one mass of destruction down through Farms, Bethel, Spanish Pointe, Trants.
Since that of course more flows and reports have stated that more damage was done in Harris’. I could see the walls of some of the houses in Farms, Bramble village, and Spanish Pointe, but it is obvious that truly there may be about 10 feet of material lying on the lands.
Trants village was completely demolished, hardly recognised any walls standing and it did seem such a vast area.
I saw how the flow over Farrells ran down and into the top of Belham.
I can now report that for Plymouth, we can expect worse to come along, it already looks a disaster. The flows that have been going down Gages and Fort Ghaut seemed to have damaged houses high up on the Gages corner and down the fringes of the ghaut. The Catholic convent and infant school and even the Church are now like the rest of the property in that vicinity are now in line for certain disaster as long as flows continue. At the foot of Gage’s mountain, the ghauts as I can remember are somewhat shallow, so that serious flows are likely to spread early over to Amersham as it has reportedly done.
I hardly had time for any detail or even good photographs as I was shooting through the helicopter sealed windows. Looking at the photographs, I do not remember where the various scenes are, and I was unable to make notes.
The helicopters are being operated from Geralds and joining them is that from the British navy ship.
Montserratians at home and
abroad, friends of Montserrat I greet you on this the 25th
Anniversary of the eruption of the Soufriere Hills Volcano.
We come together today as a people bound by our past, bound by our faith in Almighty God, and bound by our genuine love for this island called Montserrat; Alliougana –the Emerald Isle.
It has often
been said, that no generation can choose the age or the circumstance into which
they were born. But through unity,
courage, enterprise, and leadership we can choose to become agents for change
and prosperity.
Alliougana
– land of the prickly bush; 11 miles long and 7 miles wide. Ours is not a
perfect history. And we are not a perfect people.
We have had our fair share of natural disasters, earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods.
But none have brought the kind of change to the island’s physical landscape, the displacement of our peoples, and the destruction of lives and livelihoods, as the eruption of the Soufriere Hills Volcano.
Many of
us had to flee our homes during the phased eruptions, moving northwards, to
Salem, and beyond, camping along the way to our final destinations—North of
Montserrat and even overseas.
Communal
living in public spaces, such as schools, churches, and shelters became our way
of life in those early years but in the spirit of resilience we have survived,
we have endured and, we have overcome.
Over thirty years ago in September of 1989 Hurricane Hugo
damaged over 90% of the homes on island.
In July
1995, the Soufriere Hills Volcano erupted
In June 1997, major volcanic eruptions killed 19 persons, flattening our villages, forests, and agricultural lands.
In
December 1997, a series of devastating volcanic explosions rendered almost
two-thirds of our beloved island uninhabitable.
In 2003,
further significant eruptions destroyed additional land and agriculture infrastructure.
The
Emerald Isle of the Caribbean – picture-perfect and evergreen; well known for
our natural beauty.
Its
physical landscape battered in places but not obliterated. It is God who spared
our lives and spared Monserrat and for this we are eternally grateful.
Twenty-five
25 years and we are still here to God be the glory!
In 2020,
as the world sits at the cusp of a pandemic brought about by the coronavirus,
COVID-19, I say to you as your Premier and Leader of Government business that,
this too shall pass.
We will not be swallowed up. Rest assured that the health and well-being
of the Montserrat population will always be my government’s highest priority
and we will continue to work together to protect each other.
I will
always remind all of us, that we are in this together, — the whole world is
in this pandemic and we will all come out victorious.
So even as we reflect on the volcano’s eruption and subsequent crisis, our thoughts and prayers are also with the thousands of families who have lost loved ones to COVID-19, and to the millions of persons who have been infected by the virus. We feel your pain, knowing full well that it could have been any one of us.
Do stay
strong.
We are a
unique and blessed people who have come this far by faith, not because we
deserve God’s favour, but because he cares so much for us. And that is why earlier this week, we joined
with the Montserrat Christian Council in a National Day of Prayer and
Thanksgiving to observe this twenty-fifth anniversary of the volcanic
eruptions.
I believe
that as a people we have much to thank God for.
He has
bestowed on us much more than we deserve, and so I ask that we continue to
pray, giving him thanks for all of his
blessings, protection and guidance over these past 25 years.
I close
with these words from a hymn written by Philip Doddridge:
O God of Bethel by whose hand Thy children still are fed Who through this weary wilderness Has all our fathers led Such blessings from thy gracious hand Our humble prayers implore And Thou shall be our chosen God And Portion evermore
This latest disturbance is a broad area of low pressure located about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The system has been dubbed Invest 92L – a naming convention used to identify areas being watched for tropical development – by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
(The potential area of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook is shown by the polygon, color-coded by the chance of development over the next five days. An “X” indicates the location of a current disturbance. )
Invest 92L will be steered westward the next several days by the clockwise flow around a high-pressure system centered to its north.
Shower and thunderstorm activity in this system is disorganized, but conditions along its future path should be favorable for development. The NHC says there is a high chance of Invest 92L forming into a tropical depression during the next five days.
Regardless of development, this system could be located near or north of the Lesser Antilles as soon as Wednesday, and then Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late in the week. It’s too soon to determine what, if any, impacts these areas might see since that will depend on the system’s exact future track and intensity.
The forecast for this system beyond the Caribbean is also uncertain. Therefore, it’s too early to determine whether it could impact any other land areas, including the United States.
Find out what Covid-19 really is and how you can protect yourself
One thing COVID-19 isn’t is a virus. There – I said it! Not that you would know from everything that’s buzzing around the media right now.
So if it’s not a virus, what is it?
COVID-19 is the disease you develop from being infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Imagine it like HIV which is the virus that causes the disease AIDS. Or the Streptococcus bacterium that causes tonsillitis.
So what does SARS-CoV stand for and how did it start?
SARS-CoV stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome caused by the Coronavirus and SARS-CoV-2 is the latest strain of the virus.
Scientists have been looking at the genome sequencing of this virus and have traced its origins back many tens of thousands of years. Coronavirus is part of a family of viruses that cause various diseases in various animals and, more recently, humans.
Scroll forward thousands of years. The first human Coronavirus was discovered by Tyrrell and Bynoe, back in the 1960s. They took respiratory tract swabs from human volunteers who were suffering from the common cold. They discovered a common infectious agent and the story of human Coronavirus began.
Whilst this was a fantastic discovery, it only answered a few questions about an otherwise innocent disease. Oh, and also to gain its name due to the crown-like projections emanating from the virus cell’s membrane. Coronavirus!
Forward again to the 21st Century. The first strain of SARS-CoV appeared in 2002 in a small city in the Guangdong Province of China (population of around 7.2 million) on the border with Hong Kong where a farmer became ill with a severe respiratory infection. The virus spread around the world infecting 8,000 people (as far as we know) and was attributed to 774 deaths in 17 countries.
SARS-CoV came and went without a huge global concern given the overall numbers affected.
Fast forward to 2012: Saudi Arabia. The first case of MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) was reported. This spread around many countries and even reached the UK in 2015. Its official name is MERS-CoV. Since its discovery, it has infected around 2,494 people (laboratory-confirmed cases) and 858 reported deaths over 27 countries. Again, no global crisis because of such low numbers.
Now jump forward to late 2019 and back to China. This time an outbreak in the sprawling capital of Central China’s Hubei Province, Wuhan (probably from a meat market). The first example of the current mutation of the virus, SARS-CoV-2. Let’s dive in and look at why this strain of Coronavirus is causing worldwide chaos when SARS and MERS did not.
Lots of people say that flu is a huge global killer, so what’s the big deal about Coronavirus?
The World Health Organisation estimates the global deaths from seasonal flu at a minimum of 290,000 annually,
This is clearly a big number. So why the panic around Coronavirus? As we will see, for various reasons, left unchecked, the science around this new disease is that it would kill far more people than the flu. Why is this?
First up, It’s not about how many people die from it. It’s about how many catch it and survive!
In the case of SARS, there were 774 deaths out of 8,000 infected. This is a mortality rate of 9.7%.
Turning to MERS, there were 858 deaths out of 2,494 deaths, a staggering mortality rate of 35%! That means that if 100 people catch it, 35 will die.
Initially, the data suggests that this new strain of Coronavirus, SARS-COV-2, has a mortality rate of between 2-4%. On the face of it, the new virus doesn’t sound like a big deal.
However, this ignores the likely number of people infected worldwide. 2% of 1,000 would be a minor public health issue. However SARS-COV-2 is incredibly infectious and without massive interventions, many millions will be infected and 2% of millions is a huge loss of human life.
The Infection Rate
In order to understand why SARS-CoV-2 is so infectious, we need to understand something called the infection rate, calculate it for this virus and then work out how many people could potentially contract the illness and thus work out how many could possibly die.
The infection rate is how many people can a single person infect if they have the illness. We call this the R0 (R nought) number or reproduction number. For example, flu has an R0 1.3.
So for each person that has the flu, they will pass that on to another 1.3 persons. Then they, in turn, will pass that on to another 1.3 people. And on it goes.
To add some context, measles has an R0 between 12-18 depending on various factors. So measles is incredibly infectious which is why public health authorities are so concerned to ensure close to 100% of the population are vaccinated. Without mass vaccination, millions would die from measles each year.
So with this data can we predict how many will catch this new virus and how many may die?
Well, no, not quite. There is something else we have to factor in and that’s the incubation time.
Incubation Time
Incubation time determines how many people will get sick over what timeframe. The flu has an incubation period of just a few days. And you may not show any symptoms over those few days but are still passing the virus on.
In just a few days the flu can infect many people. However, you know you have it sooner and can isolate so as not to infect others. In fact, most of us are too ill to want to go out once we have the symptoms. So we often stop spreading it as widely, at that stage, because we naturally travel less through the community.
So, in the case of viruses with long incubation periods, the longer the period we can infect other people. In the case of viruses where some or a large proportion of those infected have no symptoms during the incubation period, the more people we unknowingly infect.
Putting it all Together
We can now understand why SARS-CoV-2 is posing a worldwide pandemic and an unprecedented public health emergency not seen since the 1918-19 Spanish flu epidemic which killed an estimated 20-50 million people globally.
This new variant of SARS-CoV has an R0 of 2-2.5, has an incubation period between 1-14 days and, particularly in young people can be completely symptomless.
So can we now see how a) it will infect more people, b) they won’t know they are infected until they have had the virus for a while.
The combination of these factors means that if societies do not take extreme measures to socially isolate citizens, the virus will spread extremely rapidly and widely. Public Health England and other reputable medical sources estimate infection rates where such measures are not taken of approximately 80%
Even if the estimated death rate for SARS-CoV-2 of 2-4% is exaggerated – let’s apply an overall death rate of 1% – this would mean around 54 million of the UK population would be infected and around 540,000 would die. Taking the lower of the 2-4% range, over a million people would perish in the UK.
The idea that SARS-CoV-2 is just like the flu is dangerously wrong. This virus is a very dangerous beast and requires the huge and urgent international response it has generated.
How does the SARS-CoV virus work?
This virus can’t walk and it most certainly can’t fly. What’s more, it can only use those little crown projections coming out of it to bond to very specific cells. It can’t just bond to any old cell in your body.
It’s a respiratory tract infection. It can only bind to those special cells.
How does the SARS-CoV virus get into our body?
Usually, you put it there! Viruses are very intelligently adaptable. They have been on this planet longer than we have. They need to reproduce and then get out to find new hosts. Not just new host cells within the first animal they find: if they infect too many cells that the animal will die taking the virus along with it. Somehow they have to find a way to get out of this host animal and into another one. It’s incredibly difficult to infect another species, so it needs to find lots of the same species of animal in one place.
With this in mind, viruses tend to infect areas where they can easily get in but also get out. It’s no coincidence that Norovirus makes you expel all your bodily contents from both orifices of your digestive system! Its evolutionary capability is to reach as far and wide as possible.
The same mechanism drives coughing and sneezing when we have the flu. This enables the virus to reach other potential hosts.
On the other hand, when the virus leaves the body, it is under threat. It can’t live for very long outside the body. So it needs to find a new host before it dies. If the environmental factors are right, some viruses can live outside a host for many days. SARS-CoV 2 mostly relies on you coughing out large droplets of water to carry it and give it some temporary accommodation. Depending on what it lands on, its survival is a matter of hours or several days.
Direct contact can allow the virus to be passed from one person to another. The closer the contact, the more likely. Kissing is a virus’ best and easiest route. But the most likely route is usually your hands. That’s where the tyres meet the tarmac, so to speak. It’s how we interact with our surroundings.
An infected person touches another person or a hard surface and the virus waits for you to touch your face to facilitate migration into its new host animal – YOU!
What happens once we become infected by SARS-CoV?
Once inside your body, the virus binds to cells that have similar receptors to itself.
This is what’s called an enveloped virus – it has a special fat layer around the outside. This helps protect it between host cells but it also looks like a protein that should not be attacked by the immune system. Initially anyway. The virus is not of human origin so our immune system doesn’t recognise it. The infected cell is then fooled into accepting the virus.
This is where the virus gets to work. It has found a new host and the new cells are healthy. So the virus starts to hijack the cell. The virus then uses the cell’s factory to start printing out millions of copies of itself. But it has to hide these new copies so they don’t get attacked. This is another vulnerable stage for the virus. It uses our cells to coat the new copies, to hide them and releases them in search of new hosts. The virus ruthlessly keeps printing copies until it kills the host cell that it’s hijacked. It hopes that the new copies have infected new cells and thus the cycle continues.
As more and more cells are destroyed in the production of new viruses, the system begins to break down. So, in the case of a respiratory tract infection, lung cells. Obviously, fewer functioning lung cells means reduced functionality of the lungs.
In the case of SARS-CoV 2, the evidence suggests that this is the most likely cause of death. Those with existing reduced lung function, like the elderly or those with lung diseases, are at the most risk. But any underlying health condition that reduces your body’s ability to fight infections, increases the risk.
But it’s not all bad. The clock is ticking for the virus. As it kills more cells, our immune system will be enlightened to that and start to react. Actively looking for and killing new viruses that are released from damaged host cells. Now it’s the battle of the fittest. This is why those who are young, fit or healthy have strong immune systems and their systems are best able to fight the virus and kill it off. Those people either have no symptoms or mild or moderate symptoms. They will not need medical treatment although drinking lots of fluid and taking paracetamol can be used to reduce headaches and aching limbs. Those who are less fit, older, with less strong immune systems will experience much more serious symptoms and may need to be hospitalised.
Symptoms of SARS-CoV-2
The reports of symptoms are far and wide. Ranging from no symptoms at all, all the way up to death.
However, the 2 most common symptoms are:
• a high temperature – this means you feel hot to touch on your chest or back (you do not need to measure your temperature) • a new, continuous cough – this means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or 3 or more coughing episodes in 24 hours (if you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual)
The only way to know if you really have SARS-CoV 2 is by testing.
The UK is currently only testing hospital admissions that are displaying the common symptoms. There is no test available at the moment for people who have already contracted the illness but recovered. And until we have one it’s very difficult to accurately calculate the mortality rate, infection rate and incubation period. It may be that many more have had this virus than first thought, which would significantly reduce the mortality rate. The UK Government has announced that it is very close to the release of mass self-testing to see whether individuals have had the illness because the test will detect whether they have developed antibodies (prior to last December, no human had had the virus so no-one was immune).
I think I have Covid-19 – what should I do?
If you have symptoms of coronavirus (a high temperature or a new, continuous cough), use the 111 coronavirus service: NHS 111 Service
DO NOT go to places like a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital.
What can I do to prevent getting Covid-19?
At the moment, there is no vaccine or anti-viral drug for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Once you are infected and develop Covid-19 all you can do is alleviate symptoms. So if you have a fever, for example, try to reduce it. Government advice is changing daily with daily bulletins, updates and advice. But as with any virus, we can take certain basic precautions.
Hand Washing is Your Best Weapon
Soap and water will remove the virus. Alcohol hand sanitiser can damage the fatty shell and make the virus more vulnerable. Washing robs much of the natural oils from our skin causing it to dry out. Dry skin is incredibly difficult to clean, so moisturiser is just as important as soap! After washing, try to moisturise to keep your skin hydrated and make it easier to clean.
Should I wear a face mask?
Surgical face masks won’t stop you contracting the virus. The mask is to stop the healthcare worker coughing onto their vulnerable patients. Evidence has shown that face masks can increase the risk as they get wet (remember this virus needs those water droplets) and human behaviour. Those not accustomed to wearing them touch their face more frequently than they would normally have done. Although if you have the virus you can prevent others from contracting it by using a mask or covering your face when coughing or sneezing.
Social Distancing
I’ve already mentioned how water droplets can’t travel far. So social distancing is another great weapon to combat the increased spread of the virus. The droplets from coughing and sneezing can reach up to 2 meters from the infected host. So maintaining at least that distance in an open space should prevent infection.
Isolate Yourself
Stay at home as much as you can. Only leave for essential items or to help someone who is vulnerable and cannot care for themselves. And remember that you can be infected and spread this virus with little or no symptoms. Understand the R0 factor and incubation period as I discussed earlier. If one member of your household contracts it, the chances are the rest will.
Symptoms usually last for 5-7 days. But in those where they have been complications, it can take several weeks to recover.
What About Herd Immunity?
So if most of us will be ok, then why not just go get it?
Herd immunity does work. But it works much more safely if we can vaccinate rather than take the gamble people will survive the illness. It’s estimated about 20% of those that contract this virus will require hospitalisation. With about a quarter of those which will require Intensive Care.
In number terms, it is estimated that instead of 540,000 plus dying if nothing is done, using herd immunity and then protecting the vulnerable would reduce the number of deaths by around half to 250,000.
This is why the UK Government has introduced a significant lockdown of the country. The experts have estimated that if the UK population follows the guidelines strictly, the number of overall deaths could be substantially limited, possibly as low as around 25,000.
So what is the difference between the herd immunity model and the lockdown model?
Whilst our healthcare system is currently coping, we are only in the very early stage of the epidemic in the UK at the moment.
If the growth of those catching the virus is not strongly controlled by changing the population’s exposure to each other over the cycle of the virus until there is a vaccine available (estimated at 1 year to 18 months) or effective anti-viral medication (period unknown), the health service will rapidly become overwhelmed in terms of human resources, beds, oxygen, ventilators and personal protection equipment. Many, many thousands of people will needlessly die both from the virus and also from other illnesses which the health system will not be able to treat.
Herd immunity involves allowing 80% of the population to carry on with business as usual whilst the most vulnerable are in lockdown. However, this will mean that too many people will catch the virus and get ill at the same time. Around 20% of those catching it will become seriously ill and the health service will rapidly become overwhelmed.
Hence the new model: everyone apart from essential workers are placed into periods of home lockdown. This is designed to ensure that the virus spreads in as controlled and limited way as possible so that over the medium term the health services can cope and the maximum number of lives can be saved.
If most people recover after 7 days, then our beds should clear relatively quickly and will be ready for the next wave. It would be easier to deal with many small waves than one big one. Any good sailor will tell you that. Each country has to deal with this in a different way. Individual demographics (some cultures have more people living in a single homestead), social demographics (elderly populations are more vulnerable), transport systems (better transport the larger the infection rate). I could go on. But the variables will make timing and tactics very different from country to country.
When will this end?
The truth is, we don’t know. What we do know about viruses is that they die off either by lack of hosts (because they are dead or too far away to infect so the virus naturally dies) or by having antibodies against the virus in our immune system via vaccination or surviving the virus.
But even then this could change seasonally and our antibodies may only offer short term protection like the flu.
The better question perhaps is how will this end? Here our answer is driven by what we know about the virus as summarised above. If through lockdown, the spread can be reversed, if the reversal is maintained eventually the population will be virus-free. How does the spread reverse: the answer is the R0 becomes less than 1. We know that uncontrolled the SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of 2.3 meaning one person will on average infect 2.3 other people. If we successfully self-isolate, the R0 will drop. In a strange hypothetical world where every person the entire world self-isolated for six weeks, the R0 would eventually hit 0 i.e. no-one is infecting anyone else!
In the real world, the likelihood of the virus dying out in the human population is highly remote because different countries are imposing different degrees of lockdown. Thailand is an example of a country which has closed its borders, internal curfews, etc. It has had 1,045 cases and 4 deaths in an overall population of around 69 million. It is of course much closer to the original epicentre of the illness, China, than the UK which has a population of around 67.7 million, 9,529 cases and 465 deaths. The UK’s policy has shifted from a more liberal herd immunity approach initially to a much greater degree of lockdown in the last week.
We must bear in mind that European countries, a group of liberal democracies, will be balancing restrictions against the constraints on these actions in free societies. Even within Europe, the UK is more permissive than, say, Italy and Spain.
Bottom line, given different approaches, the virus will not disappear anytime soon. So the virus will not be totally defeated for many years to come. The threat it poses can be substantially reduced if we all follow the UK Government’s directions and, we hope, many of these restrictions can be reduced and subsequently totally lifted once vaccines and anti-viral medications are in place within the next year to 18 months.
Associated Press Published – May 2, 2020 – reprint
by Danica Coto
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico— A 5.4-magnitude earthquake hit near southern Puerto Rico on Saturday, briefly knocking out power and jolting many from their beds on an island where some people still remain in shelters from previous quakes earlier this year.
There were no immediate reports of casualties.
The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake hit at a shallow depth of 5.6 miles near the city of Ponce and the towns of Guanica and Guayanilla, where hundreds of homes were destroyed by a quake in early January that killed one person and caused millions of dollars in damage.
Reports of damage were still trickling in on Saturday, with at least one second-story balcony crashing in the southern city of Ponce, spokeswoman Inés Rivera told The Associated Press. Meanwhile, cracks in homes were reported in Guayanilla.
“Everything shook really hard,” spokesman Danny Hernández said by phone.
A police officer, wearing a protective face mask as a precaution against the spread of the new coronavirus, removes debris caused by a 5.4-magnitude earthquake, in Ponce, Puerto Rico, Saturday, May 2, 2020. The quake hit near southern Puerto Rico, jolting many from their beds on an island where some people still remain in shelters from previous quakes earlier this year. Carlos Giusti, AP
Meanwhile, in Guánica, Mayor Santos Seda told the AP that no major damage has been reported so far, but noted that between five to 10 people remain in a shelter since the 6.4-magnitude quake that hit in January.
“Thank God everyone is OK,” he said. “The infrastructure is already weak.”
From January: 950 earthquakes have hit Puerto Rico so far this year. Why? Blame it on an ‘earthquake swarm’
Several aftershocks hit Puerto Rico’s southern region, including a 4.9-magnitude one.
Víctor
Huérfano, director of Puerto Rico’s Seismic Network, said in a phone
interview that while it’s understandable many people are afraid and
surprised by the most recent earthquake, it’s not unusual given the
seismic activity that began in the region in late December.
“In the long run, it’s decreasing, but you can have peaks,” he said, adding that he expects strong aftershocks to continue.
The earthquake struck as Puerto Ricans are ordered to remain home as part of a two-month lockdown to help curb coronavirus cases. Gov. Wanda Vázquez tweeted that rescue crews were fanning out across the area and that she would shortly be traveling there to meet with those affected in person.
A police officer, wearing a protective face mask as a precaution against the spread of the new coronavirus, walks past debris caused by a 5.4-magnitude earthquake, in Ponce, Puerto Rico, Saturday, May 2, 2020. The quake hit near southern Puerto Rico, jolting many from their beds on an island where some people still remain in shelters from previous quakes earlier this year. Carlos Giusti, AP
“If your infrastructure is damaged, you must leave with your face mask on and your emergency backpack,” she said as she urged people to remain calm.
But nerves are already frayed in many parts of the island as
Puerto Rico continues to recover from Hurricane Maria, a string of
strong earthquakes and the coronavirus.
Silvestre Alicea, a 67-year-old man who moved back to Puerto Rico from New York upon retiring, lost his home in January’s earthquake and is still living with his sister in Guanica.
“This is unreal,” he said, adding that some neighbors have left the area to stay with relatives elsewhere and that many, including a security guard who worked all night, are now sitting nervously in their balconies. “He hasn’t slept.”
Alicea,
however, said he decided to knock down a couple of breadfruits from a
nearby tree as the aftershocks continue: “I’m taking it easy. There’s
nothing else you can do.”
A resident, wearing a protective face mask as a precaution against the spread of the new coronavirus, makes photos of the damage caused by a 5.4-magnitude earthquake, in Ponce, Puerto Rico, Saturday, May 2, 2020. The quake hit near southern Puerto Rico, jolting many from their beds on an island where some people still remain in shelters from previous quakes earlier this year. Carlos Giusti
By March 20, 2020, the Government
would begin to introduce some and almost belatedly many of the suggestions made
in that now infamous letter.
MoHSS preparedness and planning committee/team (from GIU photo)
On March 24 Montserrat’s second case
was confirmed and on March 26 three additional cases were confirmed, bringing
the total number of cases in Montserrat to five –Five cases are too many in our
small population. (But so is one dead from dengue fever)
Following the first sign of the
Montserrat government taking some action in concern about the COVID-19 when
they signed their first Order under the Public Health Act on March 13, 2020, on
Saturday when they published the said Order, the Ministry of Health (MoHSS)
issued a press release in which it informed: “…are reviewing (arriving)
visitors who were on the same flight as the confirmed case in Antigua. Today,
March 14th, the Ministry of Health and Social Services, announces
that as part of contact tracing following yesterday’s reported case in Antigua,
that there is one (1) suspected case of COVID-19 in Montserrat.”
The release added that the MoH “…has
made contact with around 60% of persons that came to Montserrat who were on the
same flight as the reported case in Antigua, asking that, “Those persons and
any other members of the household have been asked to ‘home quarantine…” That
number of passengers was later confirmed at 104.
In an unprecedented move, it being Sunday, the Government issued a release that said, “GoM is advising visitors to the island, to rearrange their flights and depart earlier than they may have initially planned.”
The only visitors who were not yet on the island of the thousands expected would have been those from neighbouring islands who would have come for the 16-17th celebrations. Meanwhile, the suspected case of COVID-19 “individual is currently under home isolation,“ the release stated.
Premier Farrell, CMO Duberry and D. Hazel
The Premier’s next pronouncement was his St. Patrick’s Day message where he reiterated the cancellation of the Festival and further events. “…remind you of the significance of this day for us here…Many are captivated by the annual celebrations which accompany our St. Patrick’s Festival. However, we know the ongoing public health emergency has affected our usual St. Patrick’s festivities. Of course, you will all appreciate that the actions are taken to cancel the St. Patrick’s festival in the best interest of all of us — Public Health is Paramount.”
Meanwhile, the ECCB revealed: “On the recommendation of the ECCB Board of Directors, the Monetary Council of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) has approved grant funding, in the sum of EC$4.0m (EC$500,000 each), to the ECCB Member Governments, to help in their fight against the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19…
It is uncertain whether GoM has publicly acknowledged or has said how that money was spent, considering the lame discussions that have taken place since then about money, particularly when Governor Pearce a week later misconstrued a question as to how they were accessing funds for the crisis, when promises were made to compensate or to assist employers and workers in the shutdown that had been seen necessary to avoid transmission of the virus.
The next release from the government since Sunday was one where, “The Government of Montserrat has made provisions for discretionary leave, and has issued a flexible working arrangements policy for public officers, in light of the March 13, 2020 decision to limit gatherings of more than 50 persons, and to close schools for the period 16th March to 3rd April, 2020.” Schools should be on Easter vacation for the next couple weeks
On the 19th MoH activated a 24-hour service exclusively to treat and manage persons with flu-like symptoms. “This will aid in the identification of persons infected with COVID- 19 as opposed to the other respiratory illnesses like the cold and flu…” a release explained.
That was followed with another call on visitors to leave this time with the offer that, “In light of the evolving global pandemic, major airlines are cutting back flights…To accommodate travelers who are willing to re-schedule their flights, airlines have removed change fees on bookings, so persons can amend their travels without additional fees or charges…” and that the same would “to the Montserrat Ferry Service and airline tickets between Montserrat and Antigua.”
A hastily planned press conference
was called that same day, which TMR was not represented for more than
questionable circumstances which may be mentioned later.
Premier Joseph Farrell
A long statement was presented at
that press conference where Premier Farrell after noting “the first case might
have caused some anxiety and that is a natural response,” noting also, “The
commitment from the UK Government to Montserrat remains strong.”
He then announced Government “are in
constant communication with the United Kingdom Government and Public Health UK,
as well as regional partners including OECS, CARICOM, CARPHA, ECCB, (ECCB had
previously announced grant funds, still no acknowledge to a decision he would
have been part of, or privy to) so that we can continue to take the appropriate
steps to minimize the threat of the virus to the country (already here) and
reduce risk to citizens, residents and visitors.”
He said, “Government is in continuous
dialogue with local stakeholders with the intention of further improving the
COVID-19 response plan,” which “includes the social, economic and fiscal
arrangements for dealing with this global pandemic.”
He announced further, some of the specific support, adding that he had instructed the Ministry of Finance in January 2020 to immediately release funds to the Ministry of Health for the purchase of medical equipment, protective clothing, and supplies, in preparation for any impending COVID-19 cases as Phase I of our preparation.
Finally, he announced further restriction of: public gatherings from 50 to 25;
a 14 day quarantine period for anyone traveling to Montserrat; a reiterated prohibition of visits to public and private homes of the elderly;
the self-isolation of elderly persons aged 70 and over with the provision for family and community members and Health authorities to provide support where necessary; and guidance that everyone adheres to ongoing Public Health Advice and precautions around social distancing and personal hygiene.
Donaldson Romeo, MLA member
Earlier that day, March 19, we received a Statement from former Premier Donaldson Romeo now opposition member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) with a note that this was following up on exchanges he has had with the Governor and by copy to the Premier. He complained: “His Excellency Andrew Pearce, Montserrat’s British-appointed Governor, and Montserrat’s elected Premier, Hon Taylor are fumbling, unprepared and ill-equipped, weeks behind the curve of the crisis, in a country that has been over-exposed to the virus after a big influx of visitors to the St. Patrick’s festival.”
He pointed out: “Many countries have
declared a state of emergency in an effort to enforce a greater level of
isolation, slow the spread of the coronavirus, and eventually wipe it out.”
He explained his statement citing several examples of action worldwide, pointing specifically, “the Monetary Council (on which our Hon Premier sits), and which on Sunday, March 15 declared that the best action to minimize economic fallout from COVID-19 is containment supported by personal responsibility combined with proactive, and where needed, aggressive public policy”.
He pointed to the fact, “The
Government of Montserrat and the Governor turned a deaf ear to appeals to
cancel the St. Patrick’s festival, and went ahead with the celebrations as
usual, attracting more than 2,500 plus visitors to the island, and increasing
its population by 50%.”
He questioned, “Will His Excellency
Governor Pearce and our Hon Premier Taylor supported by HMG, consider calling a
State of Emergency?” Then he quoted the UK Chancellor, “We want to look back on
this time and remember how in the face of a generation-defining moment, we
undertook a collective national effort and we stood together.”
What Romeo did not say is that he had not had any ear to his suggestions from H E and the Premier he had secured promises from the UK that support was waiting to be accessed. His statement was headed, “To be or not to be worthy of “Small Acts of Kindness”
Reacting out of view to questions from the press
Since that week, through today, there have been reports of more and suspected cases and confirmed cases, including one individual, who was tested, but who had left the island while test results were pending. Only one person remained hospitalized as shown on the front page graph, while others are questionably sent into “home quarantine.”
Donaldson Romeo’s Statement…
The British Chancellor declared today:
“We want to look back on this moment
and remember the many small acts of kindness done by us and to us. We want to
look back on this time and remember how we thought first of others and acted
with decency. We want to look back on this time and remember how in the face of
a generation-defining moment, we undertook a collective national effort and we
stood together.”
These are heartwarming words indeed,
and Montserratians are waiting to know whether the Chancellor’s “we” includes
us in the British Overseas Territories.
As we wait, we in Montserrat hold
fast to the Hand of God that has been, and will continue to be, a Present Help
in trouble to all those, governments and people around the world, willing to
work together for the common good.
“Just over a week later The British Prime Minister, like other leaders around the world, has finally ordered strict bans and provided considerable funding to address the medical dilemma and economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Meanwhile, His Excellency Andrew
Pearce, Montserrat’s British-appointed Governor, and Montserrat’s elected
Premier, Hon Taylor are fumbling, unprepared and ill-equipped, weeks behind the
curve of the crisis, in a country that has been over-exposed to the virus after
a big influx of visitors to the St. Patrick’s festival.
Just days ago the USA issued its
strongest travel advisory, level 4, urging U.S. citizens to avoid all
international travel due to the global impact of COVID-19.
Apart from the USA, many countries in the Caribbean and around the world experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks have implemented travel restrictions and mandatory quarantines. Some have closed borders and denied entry to non-citizens. Many cruise operators have suspended operations or canceled trips. So have airlines, leaving travelers stranded and some businesses at a standstill.
Many countries have declared a state
of emergency in an effort to enforce a greater level of isolation, slow the
spread of the coronavirus, and eventually wipe it out. Last week the Governor
of Missouri, Michael Parson, declared a state of emergency when only two cases
were found (out of a population of 6 million!). Why? To better control the
level of people’s isolation, and to be allowed to waive certain state laws and
regulations as needed to deal with the public health crisis. In addition, the
declaration of a state of emergency permits the state to access extra funds and
take additional actions to respond to the growing public health emergency.
According to statistics coming from
Imperial College, London, if strict social distancing is observed, the UK can
expect around 20,000 people to die over the course of a year, as opposed to up
to 10 times as many (200,000) if strict social distancing is not practiced.
Previously the UK Government was slow
to take drastic measures, simply requesting that people avoid unnecessary
social contact, and businesses were not required to close. Today (Friday, March
20) Pubs, bars, cafes, restaurants and many other venues across the UK were
ordered to close, in a bid to slow the spread of COVID 19.
According to the online Guardian
newspaper, the British Government “will cover 80% of the salaries of retained
workers up to £2,500 per month, and defer the next quarter of VAT payments due
from businesses”. It will also provide “£6 billion of extra support for the
welfare system.” The scheme, says Metro, another London paper, “will run for at
least three months but can be extended if necessary and will have ‘no limit’ of
funding.”
With these examples of what
Governments around the world (and the British Government in particular) are
doing, the Government of Montserrat is still in go-slow mode, with lightweight
measures banning gatherings of more than 25 persons and only asking passengers
arriving on Montserrat to self-isolate for 14 days. Apart from paying public
servants five days early, there is no mention of assistance to the unemployed
or to struggling businesses and people who have, for the past 25 years, been
living, fighting to rebound from a volcanic crisis.
And that despite the strong advice coming from our own EC Dollar Monetary Council (on which our Hon Premier sits), and which on Sunday, March 15 declared that “the best action to minimize economic fallout from COVID-19 is containment supported by personal responsibility combined with proactive, and where needed, aggressive public policy”.
What is particularly worrying is that Montserrat’s only hospital is already short of equipment and staffing to deal with specialist medical conditions in normal times, never mind handling large numbers of the respiratory and other complications that would come with a COVID 19 pandemic. Since there is no testing equipment on the island, samples must be flown more than 400 miles to Trinidad to be tested, with a turnaround time for results of 2 to 3 days. Therefore, one cannot tell in good time whether medical staff, or those with symptoms, or who have had contact with an individual, are carrying the virus or not.
The Government of Montserrat and the
Governor turned a deaf ear to appeals to cancel the St. Patrick’s festival, and
went ahead with the celebrations as usual, attracting more than 2,500 plus
visitors to the island, and increasing its population by 50%.
On March 10, BA flight 2157 brought
300 plus passengers from London to Antigua. One of these passengers tested
positive for the coronavirus – Antigua’s first confirmed case. Of the 80
passengers from the same flight that came on to Montserrat, one eventually also
tested positive, becoming the island’s first COVID-19 patient.
No doubt taking their cue from the
Government’s timid approach to social distancing and to severely restricting
travel into Montserrat, parties, bars, restaurants and many other venues and
social gatherings continued as per usual throughout and after the festival
period.
Many continue to argue that the
Governor (constitutionally responsible for leading out in disaster management
and mitigation, as well as security), and Montserrat’s elected Government, need
not have taken such a gamble with lives. After all, because of prolonged
economic stagnation since the volcanic crisis, HMG is already providing 60% of
Montserrat’s recurrent budget and over 90% of its capital expenditure.
Not to mention the fact that in
keeping with UN article 73, Montserrat is entitled to be treated as a priority
recipient of aid from the UK Overseas Development Aid (ODA) budget of over £12
billion (0.07% of UK’s GDP, totally separate from, and therefore not affecting,
domestic spending). More to the point, many Montserratians fear a repeat of the
belated and inadequate aid they have received since the beginning of the
ongoing 25-year volcanic crisis.
So while the British Prime Minister,
like other leaders in the Caribbean and around the world, enforces stricter
bans on social distancing and promises billions of pounds in aid to British
people and businesses, Montserratians are left, avoidably ill-equipped and
vulnerable, to face an unprecedented pandemic. Our government has been
hesitating instead of taking the radical action required to slow contagion, to
provide adequate emergency health care, as well as measures for mitigating the
inevitable social and economic impact of this new threat.
Will His Excellency Governor Pearce
and our Hon Premier Taylor supported by HMG, consider calling a State of
Emergency? When will they take the advice of our own Monetary Council and act
swiftly to save lives and “to minimize economic fallout from COVID-19 containment
supported by personal responsibility combined with proactive, and where needed,
aggressive public policy”?
This is bottom line for us! Unless we receive your support, our effort will not be able to continue. Whatever and however you can, please support The Montserrat Reporter in whatever amount you can (and whatever frequency) – and it only takes a minute.
Thank you
23% of Americans think the country has become more united since Pres. Biden took office, according to a new @ABC News/Ipsos poll. Among this group, an overwhelming 87% give Biden credit. https://abcn.ws/339jLvU
