A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the Western Caribbean, and this system has the potential for development into a tropical depression on Sunday or Monday. Wind shear was a high 30 knots on Friday morning over the region.

There will be some high wind shear and dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico early next week in association with the upper-level trough of low pressure there, and these conditions will likely interfere with development, making intensification into a hurricane unlikely.

This high shear will prevent development until Saturday at the earliest as the disturbance heads west-northwest towards Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. On Saturday and Sunday, shear will drop and an area of low pressure will form over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula.

This low and its associated moisture will ride up to the north-northeast into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday under the steering influence of a large trough of low pressure that will move over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis–the GFS, European, and UKMET models–all showed a tropical depression or tropical storm developing by Monday and making landfall on the west coast of Florida north of Tampa on Tuesday morning.

Regardless of development, heavy rains will be the main threat from this system, and two to seven inches of rain can be expected over much of Florida during the period Monday – Tuesday.

In their 7 a.m. Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave two-day and five-day odds of development of 10% and 60%, respectively. On Saturday morning those percentages were raised to 50% in two days and 70% in five days.

Should this system get a name, it would be Colin. Hurricane Hunters are now scheduled to investigate the Northwest Caribbean disturbance on Saturday afternoon.