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A further weakening and shifting Danny may even deny Montserrat the rain it needs

5pm map at 201504 Discussion and 48-hour outlook

At 500 PM AST (2100 utc), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 15.6 north, longitude 59.0 west. Danny is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or early Monday, and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Monday.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

More discussion:

Danny has become decidedly less organized since earlier today. The low-level circulation center became exposed to the southwest of the main area of deep convection, and that deep convection has become rather ragged-looking.

This is also consistent with recent data buoy observations. Danny should remain in an environment of moderately strong shear and dry mid-tropospheric air for the next few days. These unfavorable factors should cause weakening to a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, and dissipation thereafter. If the global models are correct, however, Danny could dissipate sooner than shown here.

Danny continues to move a little south of the previously estimated track, and the initial motion estimate is 260/14. This is likely due to the fact that it is becoming a shallow circulation. A low-to mid-level ridge to the north of Danny should provide a continued westward or a little north of westward motion for the next 72 hours or so. The track models have shifted even a little farther to the south on this cycle, so the official forecast is adjusted accordingly. This is close to the dynamical model consensus.

(Storm tracked center to pass south of Guadeloupe) Although tropical storm watches or warnings are not in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy, the government of France has issued a warning for heavy rain and strong winds for those islands.

 

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5pm map at 201504 Discussion and 48-hour outlook

At 500 PM AST (2100 utc), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 15.6 north, longitude 59.0 west. Danny is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or early Monday, and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Monday.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

More discussion:

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Danny has become decidedly less organized since earlier today. The low-level circulation center became exposed to the southwest of the main area of deep convection, and that deep convection has become rather ragged-looking.

This is also consistent with recent data buoy observations. Danny should remain in an environment of moderately strong shear and dry mid-tropospheric air for the next few days. These unfavorable factors should cause weakening to a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, and dissipation thereafter. If the global models are correct, however, Danny could dissipate sooner than shown here.

Danny continues to move a little south of the previously estimated track, and the initial motion estimate is 260/14. This is likely due to the fact that it is becoming a shallow circulation. A low-to mid-level ridge to the north of Danny should provide a continued westward or a little north of westward motion for the next 72 hours or so. The track models have shifted even a little farther to the south on this cycle, so the official forecast is adjusted accordingly. This is close to the dynamical model consensus.

(Storm tracked center to pass south of Guadeloupe) Although tropical storm watches or warnings are not in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy, the government of France has issued a warning for heavy rain and strong winds for those islands.